Wheat quotations fell by 1.6-2.4%, despite the deterioration of crops in the US

In anticipation of the USDA's March report, wheat prices on global exchanges continue to fall, not reacting to forecasts of a reduction in the new season of wheat production, as well as ending stocks to a 10-year low.

According to the NASS USDA weekly report, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition during the week decreased by 3% to 43% in Texas, by 5% to 65% in Oklahoma, and by 4% to 53% in Kansas.

But traders are more concerned about the low pace of wheat exports from the USA, which decreased by 36% to 353.2 thousand tons in a week, and in total in the season amounted to 12.97 million tons, which is 21% less than last year's corresponding figure - 15.65 million tons .

May wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 2.4% to $202.5/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2% to $209.2/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.6% to $240.9/t – for HRS durum spring wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1.6% to €190.25/t or $206.4/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

In 2023/24 MR, as of March 3, EU countries exported 20.98 million tons of wheat, which is only 2% less than last year's pace, but it is unlikely to reach the USDA forecast of 36.5 million tons.

In the current season, the Russian Federation exported a record 35.8 million tons of wheat, which explains (particularly to Polish farmers) the significant drop in world prices. It was possible to increase exports thanks to the diversification of supplies and increasing shipments to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Algeria, Kenya and Indonesia.

We will remind you that according to the USDA forecast, in 2023/24, Ukraine will export 15 million tons of wheat, and the Russian Federation - 51 million tons. As of March 1, Ukraine shipped 11.77 million tons of wheat (11.34 million tons on this date last year).

Analysts expect that in a new report, USDA experts will reduce the estimate of the final stocks of wheat in 2023/24 MR by another 1.3 million tons to 258 million tons. At the same time, the projected decrease in production in the EU and the USA due to the reduction of sowing areas, as well as in North Africa due to unfavorable weather, the price level may change during the period of harvesting the new crop.