Wheat quotations rose by 1.6-3.7% against the background of excessive precipitation and frost in Europe

World wheat quotes rose 1.6-3.7% yesterday amid a wave of cold and rain in Europe, especially in northern regions, which could delay planting and damage spring crops.

Large funds increased wheat long positions in Chicago by 9,835 to 96,403 contracts and Kansas City by 4,620 to 49,231 contracts for the week, a near-record high.

Markets have not yet reacted to Russia's intentions to increase the grain export quota by June 30 by another 5 million tons to 29 million tons.

According to NASS USDA, the number of U.S. winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition fell 5% to 50% for the week, well above last year's 26%. 15% of the planned areas are sown with spring wheat in the USA (10% on average over 5 years).

Yesterday, July new crop wheat futures reversed last week's decline and rose:

• by 3.7% to $215.9/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.7% for the week),
• by 3.3% to $221.4/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+3.6%).
• by 1.6% to $243.5/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+3%).
• by 3.7% to €223/t or $237.5/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+3.1%).

The world market is saturated with cheap Russian wheat, which is offered at $210/t FOB, while prices for European wheat are $217-220/t FOB, and for American wheat - $220/t FOB.

In 2023/24, the United States of America exported (as of April 18) 16.44 million tons of wheat, which is 8.1% lower than last year's pace.

According to the forecast of Rusagrotrans, the Russian Federation will export 4.6 million tons of wheat in April, which slightly exceeds the 4.55 million tons shipped in April 2023.

In 2023/24, Ukraine exported 15.13 million tons of wheat, in particular, for April 1-22 - 1.29 million tons, while last year these figures were 13.9 million tons and 0.94 million tons, respectively.

Data from export statistics indicate that the Russian Federation currently has the greatest influence on world prices, and significant transitional stocks in the country will continue to put pressure on the prices of the new harvest.

Against the background of the appreciation of the dollar and the strengthening of export demand, the purchase prices of fodder wheat in Ukraine increased during the week by UAH 100-200/t to UAH 6,900-7,100/t or $157-160/t, and for food wheat by UAH 50-100 /t to UAH 7700-7950/t or $175-178/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.