Wheat quotes in the US fell to the lowest level since 2020

High harvesting rates and good wheat yields in the US increase the pressure on stock quotes, especially against the background of higher wheat harvest forecasts for Canada and the Russian Federation.

 

According to the Wheat Quality Council's crop tour, which ended on July 25, in North Dakota, the average yield of all wheat varieties will reach 3.62 t/ha (3.17 t/ha in 2023), and the average yield of hard red HRS wheat will make a record 3.66 t/ha (3.19 t/ha last year).

 

Against this background, wheat prices in Chicago fell to the lowest level since July 2020, and in Kansas and Minneapolis - to the lowest level since December 2020.

 

September wheat futures fell on Friday:

• by 2.8% to $192.35/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-12.6% for the month),
• by 3% to $200.44/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-9.9%).
• by 2.7% to $216.24/t - for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+7.2%).
• by 1.1% to €217.25/t or $235.95/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-3.6%).

 

Prices for European wheat fell only to the lowest level since April 2024 on forecasts of a decline in the harvest in the EU and Ukraine. In addition, they were supported by forecasts of increased imports by African countries.

 

We will remind you that the European Commission reduced the forecast for the production of soft wheat in the EU in 2024/25 MR by 1.1 to 120.8 million tons, which will be 4% less than the 2023/24 MR harvest.

 

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 50% in the week. Currently, wheat has been harvested on 41% of the area (+27% for the week), but the pace of harvesting is lower than the annual average due to prolonged rains, which worsen the quality of the grain.

 

USDA experts predict that in 2024/25, Morocco will increase its wheat imports by 15% compared to the previous season to 7.5 million tons, which will be 39% higher than the 5-year average, as its own production will decrease by 43% to 3, 1 million tons due to drought.

 

The SovEkon agency increased the wheat harvest forecast in the Russian Federation by 0.5 to 84.7 million tons due to favorable weather for spring wheat.

 

Dry weather prevails in the east of Ukraine, in the Russian Federation and adjacent areas of western Kazakhstan, which reduces the prospects for the winter wheat harvest. But if there are no good rains in the east of the Russian Federation in the near future, the production of spring wheat will also decrease significantly.