Wheat quotes continue to fall, losing 8.5-13.5% for the week

The world wheat market remains under pressure to accelerate harvesting in the main exporting countries, where good yields are observed. Favorable weather predicted for the next two weeks will allow harvesting to be completed. Wheat quotations on world exchanges have been falling for 5 days in a row, and have decreased by 8.5-13.5% in a week.

Yesterday, September futures fell:

• by 2.1% to $230.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-13.5% for the week),
• by 2.6% to $282/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-12.9%).
• by 1.8% to $306.3/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis 9-8.5%),
• by 0.8% to €232/t or $254.1/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-8.4%).

At the same time, Black Sea wheat in Chicago rose by 0.2% to $241.25/t (0%).

According to forecasts, in the next two weeks, the intensity of precipitation in the EU and Ukraine will decrease, which will allow harvesting to be accelerated.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) increased the forecast for the production of grain and oil crops in Ukraine in 2023/24 FY by 7.8 million tons to 76.8 million tons (73.8 million tons in 2022/3 FY), in particular wheat - from 17 .9 to 20.2 million tons, although the USDA estimates the wheat harvest at 17.5 million tons. Taking into account the transitional stocks of the season in the amount of 4.3 million tons, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine estimates the export of wheat in 2023/24 at 15 million tons (USDA - in 17.5 million tons).

Prices were not supported even by the increase in export sales of wheat from the USA for the period of July 21-27 by 20% compared to the previous week to 421,000 tons, which in total in the season reached 5.84 million tons, which corresponds to last year's pace.

Precipitation in the Northern and Southern Plains of the United States, the east of the Russian Federation, and in the Canadian prairies will continue to improve the condition of spring wheat crops in the coming days, which will increase the pressure on quotations.