Wheat quotes started the week with a fall of 2.3-3.3% on forecasts of an increase in the harvest in Australia

Wheat quotations on world exchanges yesterday fell by 2.3-3.3%, and in general for the week - by 4.3-8.4% against the background of a decrease in demand for American and European wheat and an increase in the forecast of the harvest in Australia.

According to the estimates of the federal agency ABARES, despite severe floods in the east of Australia, wheat production in 2022/23 will reach a record 36.6 million tons, which will exceed the previous record of 2021/22 by 1% and 2 million tons - USDA forecast.

Statistics Canada reported that 33.8 million tons of wheat were harvested in the country in 2022, which is inferior to the September forecast of 34.7 million tons, but is 52% higher than last year's figure.

The market has yet to react to the data as it awaits the USDA's updated balance sheets due out on December 9. It is expected that they will increase the production forecast for Australia and the Russian Federation and decrease it for Canada and Argentina.

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week of November 25 - December 1 grew by 18% to 334.6 thousand tons, and in total in the season reached 10.9 million tons, which is 243 thousand tons lower than last year's pace and is 51.7% of the USDA forecast .

According to the European Commission, in 2022/23 MR (as of the end of November), EU countries exported 13.89 million tons of soft wheat, which is 3% higher than last year's corresponding figure of 13.45 million tons, but is only 40% of the forecast USDA for this season.

As of December 5, Ukraine exported 6.93 million tons of wheat in the 2022/23 financial year (14.6 million tons on this date last year), which is 64% of the forecasted 11 million tons of exports for this season.

During the same period, the Russian Federation exported 19.8 million tons of wheat, which is inferior to the record 22.4 million tons exported on this date in 2020/21 MR, but is 1.4 million tons higher than last year's pace and is 47% of the USDA forecast.

Yesterday wheat quotes fell:

• by 3.1% or $7.99/t to $262.9/t - December futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-8.4% for the week),
• by 3% or $9.92/t to $335.4/t - December HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City (-4.9%).
• by 3.3% or $10/t to $314.1/t - December futures for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-7.8%),
• by 0.3% to $315/t - January futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (-0.7%).
• by 2.3% or €7.25/t to €313.25/t or $328.7/t - December wheat futures on Paris Euronext (-4.3%).

According to Reuters, the Ministry of Finance of Pakistan said on December 5 that it agreed to import 450,000 tons of Russian wheat, which will be purchased at the government level from the Russian state company "Prodintorg" at a price of $372/ton CIF.