Wheat quotations fall, despite another decrease in the forecast for the harvest in Argentina

Uncertainty over the further operation of grain corridors from the ports of Ukraine increases the pressure on domestic wheat prices, as traders have practically stopped purchases at the ports and export grain only towards the western borders. However, the factor of grain corridors no longer affects the markets, and world wheat quotations are falling.

FAS USDA experts lowered Argentina's FY 2022/23 wheat crop forecast to 15.5 million tons due to prolonged drought, while production reached 22.5 million tons in FY 2021/22. The country is experiencing a third consecutive dry year and is currently in a moisture deficit negatively affects barley and wheat crops. Due to the low harvest, wheat exports from Argentina in the 2022/23 FY will decrease to 10 million tons, compared to 16.2 million tons in the 2021/22 season, which ends in November. The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its wheat production estimate from 15 to 13.7 million tons.

Export sales of wheat from the United States for the week of October 14-20 rose to a seasonal high of 533,000 tons, and in total for the season reached 11.823 million tons, although last year on this date they amounted to 12.6 million tons.

Yesterday wheat quotes fell:

• by 0.2% or $0.73/t to $308.1/t - December futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 0.9% or $3.12/t to $342.5/t - December HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City,
• by 0.1% or $0.55/t to $349.2/t - December futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.9% or $2.75/t to $317.75/t November Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago.

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext rose by 0.6% or €2.25/t to €336.5/t or $336/t.

European wheat prices support good export rates. According to the European Commission, from July 1 to October 25, the EU exported 11.15 million tons of soft wheat (of which 4.3 million tons - France), while last year on this date, exports amounted to 10.96 million tons.

IGC analysts in the October report increased the forecast of wheat production in Australia to 33.5 million tons (32.2 million tons in 2021/22 MR and 36.3 million tons in 2020/21 MR) and Argentina - to 17.5 (18; 22.1) million tons.