Wheat quotations on world exchanges remain stable, which limits price growth in Ukraine

Last week, wheat quotations on world exchanges grew by only 0.4-1% against the background of the absence of significant supporting factors.

Forecasts of precipitation and a decrease in temperatures in the Black Sea region reduced fears of the loss of winter wheat crops in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

In the US, wheat stocks as of September 1 amounted to 54 million tons, which was 5.9 million tons higher than the corresponding figure last year, but turned out to be lower than the market expected.

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week decreased by 25.7% to 536.9 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 8.23 million tons, which is 36.16% ahead of last year's pace.

The European Commission reduced the forecast of grain production in the EU in 2024/25 from 264.5 to 260.9 million tons, in particular, soft wheat - by 1.5 to 114.6 million tons, and durum wheat - to 7.2 million tons .

December wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 0.7% to $214.6/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (0% for the week),
• by 1.2% to $214.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.1%).
• by 2.2% to $228.45/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+0.4%),
• by 0.6% to €222.25/t or $247.6/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+0.9%).

Agencies of the Russian Federation continue to lower forecasts of the country's grain harvest, in particular corn and wheat. Thus, IKAR experts reduced the estimate of wheat production to 81.8 million tons, and ProZerno - to 81.6 million tons. As of September 27, 80.9 million tons of wheat were threshed in Russia from 88% of the area, but rains in Siberia delayed harvesting.

In Ukraine, during the week, export purchase prices for food wheat remained at the level of 9,400-9,500 UAH/t or $203-205/t, and for fodder increased by another 100-200 UAH/t to 8,900-9,100 UAH/t or 190-193 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. The decrease in the interbank exchange rate of the dollar and the increase in offers from manufacturers limits the growth of prices.

In 2024/25 MR (as of September 27), Ukraine exported 5.8 million tons of wheat, which is 86% higher than last year's corresponding indicator (3.11 million tons), in particular, 2 million tons of wheat were shipped in September, which is twice as much as exports September 2023