Wheat quotes on world exchanges fall in anticipation of the January USDA report

Wheat prices on world exchanges are falling ahead of the USDA's January report, which may raise the Australian harvest forecast and estimate of ending stocks. In addition, the wheat production forecast for Argentina, where 95% of the crop has already been threshed, is expected to be adjusted.

 

Today is a holiday in the US due to President Carter's funeral, so the USDA report will be released on Friday, including estimates of winter wheat plantings.

 

March wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1.2% to $197/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.9% per week),
• by 1.1% to $202.1/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.7%),
• by 1.7% to $215/t - for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.9%),

March wheat futures on Euronext Paris remained unchanged at €230.75/t or $237.7/t (0%).

 

US MSG data showing that only 47% of the winter wheat crop in Kansas is now in good or excellent condition (compared to 55% at the end of November) has not yet supported quotes.

 

Wheat exports from the US in the 2024/25 MY reached 12.716 million tons, which is 25.1% ahead of last year's pace.

 

Egypt increased wheat imports in 2024 compared to 2023 by 40% from 10 to 14 million tons due to increased supplies by commercial enterprises amid reduced purchases by the state agency GASC.

 

In India, wheat prices have risen to record highs as supply crunches amid strong demand from flour mills struggling to secure raw materials to operate at full capacity. The government sells 100,000 tonnes of wheat from its reserves to wholesale buyers each week, but that is not enough to meet demand, so sales need to be increased.

 

In Ukraine, export demand prices in Black Sea ports remain at $210-216/t or UAH 10,200-10,300/t for food wheat and $205-208/t or UAH 9,750-9,850/t for feed wheat, but producers continue to restrain sales.

 

In the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 9.98 million tons of wheat, in particular in January - 209 thousand tons, while in the previous season these figures were 7.8 million tons and 208 thousand tons, respectively.

 

The Jordanian Ministry of Industry and Trade this week purchased 60,000 tons of food wheat at a tender for shipment from March 1 to 15 at a price of $268.9/ton C&F from CHS, although bid prices were $270.5-283/ton, indicating buyers' willingness to lower prices for the sale of even small lots.