Wheat quotes on US exchanges are losing speculative growth, and in Ukraine prices for the new crop are falling

Speculative pressure on July futures, which expire on July 14, has intensified on American wheat exchanges, so traders are massively selling off the nearest contracts, losing money, as September contracts are trading $20/t more expensive than July ones.

Expectations of further increases in wheat prices amid adverse weather in the US were not met, as rains in June improved the condition of spring wheat crops.

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of June 28, 48% of the U.S. winter wheat area has been harvested (39% on average over the past 5 years). The share of winter wheat crops in good to excellent condition remained at 26% during the week (48% last year), but the number of spring wheat crops increased by 5% to 59% (53% last year).

During the week, July wheat futures fell:

• by 4.9% to $209.3/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (September futures are trading at $212.5/t),
• by 5.6% to $220.5/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City ($225.9/t),
• by 12% to $200.9/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis ($221.1/t),
• by 0.6% to €202.5/t or $230.9/t - September soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (December futures are trading at $238/t).

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, during June 16-22, the number of soft wheat crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 2% to 74% (68% last year), and about 7% of the area has already been threshed. Last week, the heat of 40-45 degrees sharply worsened the condition of the crops and the potential for the harvest, so we can expect a price correction next week.

A heatwave this week also hit eastern Europe, which could significantly reduce the EU's crop potential.

Heat has also arrived in Ukraine, but forecasts promise periodic showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce stress for plants and not greatly affect yields.

Over the past week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine decreased by another 100-150 UAH/t to 10,700-10,900 UAH/t or $212-216/t for food wheat and to 10,100-10,200 UAH/t or $200-202/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Export rates in June remain high, and in the 26 days of June, Ukraine exported 1.313 million tons of wheat compared to 0.8 million tons in the same period last year. In total, 13.88 million tons of wheat were exported in the 2025/26 MY compared to 15.72 million tons in the same period last year.

According to the BAGE exchange, 65.8% of the planned area has been sown with wheat in Argentina (73% last year and 72% on average over 5 years), but the amount of precipitation is still less than required.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts that in the 2026/27 MY, global wheat production will decrease by 3.8% to 810.9 million tons due to reduced harvests in major exporters, including Australia, the EU, and the USA, where production will decrease by 21.3%.