Forecasts of a decrease in the corn harvest contribute to the increase in prices in Ukraine

According to estimates of the Ministry of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine, the average yield of early crops in the country will decrease by only 5%, while the yield of late crops due to abnormal heat in most regions will decrease by 15%.

Temperatures in Ukraine have dropped to normal last week, but precipitation has been patchy, so soil moisture reserves remain low in many regions, causing plants to dry out and soybean and corn crops to deteriorate.

During the week, purchase prices for corn of the new harvest with delivery to the port in October-November increased by another 3-5 $/t to $180-185/t SRT, which is slightly higher than last year's level. They are supported by the increase in export prices for fodder wheat up to $180/t SRT-port due to the shortage of offers from farmers.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2024/25 MR (as of July 29), Ukraine exported 1.47 million tons of corn (1.1 million tons for the same period last year).

December corn futures in Chicago for the week fell by 0.7% to $162.3/t (-2.2% for the month, -25% for the year) against the background of favorable weather and active exports from the US.

According to NASS USDA data, in the USA on July 28, the harvest in the test stage was formed on 30% of corn crops, which is 8% higher than the average 5-year indicator. The number of corn crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 1% to 68% (55% last year).

Exports of corn from the USA in FY 2023/24 reached 46.66 million tons, which is 34% ahead of the pace of FY 2022/23 and by the end of the season (August 31) will significantly exceed the USDA forecast of 47.7 million tons.

According to AgRural estimates, in Brazil, on July 28, corn of the second harvest was collected on 91% of the area (55% last year), which allows to increase exports and strengthens competition on the world market.

During the week on the exchange in Paris, August corn futures fell by 1.8% to €217.25/t, and November - by 4.3% to €208/t or $192.1/t, which is 14 % inferior to last year's level.

All this will increase the pressure on Black Sea corn prices in the near future.