Forecasts of an increase in the area of winter rape seeding in the EU lower the quotations
After a speculative rise of 5% last week, rape quotes continue to fall. A new factor of pressure was the forecast of Strategie Grains experts on the expansion of rapeseed sowing areas in the EU.
According to Strategie Grains estimates, in 2023/24 FY 2023/24, 6 million hectares of rapeseed will be sown in the EU, which will be 2.4% higher than the current season, in which the sowing area increased by 10% compared to 2021/22 FY, and the harvest - almost by 15% to 19.5 million tons. In addition, the agency expects to expand sunflower and soybean sowing areas next year.
Rape prices in Europe have fallen from record levels reached at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, but remain above average.
Yesterday, February rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange fell 2.5% to €648.75/t or $649.39/t, losing 3.4% for the week, but were supported by rising oil prices.
January canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange remain unchanged at CAD 903/t or $668/t, the same as a week ago. So far, the market has not reacted to the reduction in quotations in Europe, but it may collapse after the release of the USDA report under the pressure of increased supply.
In Ukraine, the demand for rapeseed is decreasing, as the supply has decreased and traders have switched to purchasing other crops. Purchase prices with delivery to the Danube ports remain at the level of $470-500/t.
The world market, under pressure from this season's record canola crop, is expecting increased exports from Australia. As of November 3, a record 4.6 million tons (in bunker weight) of rapeseed were harvested in the Russian Federation, which is 55.5% higher than last year's corresponding figure, while the harvest forecast was 4 million tons, and in 2021, 2 million tons were harvested. 8 million The average yield increased compared to last year by 14.4% to 2.09 t/ha. Since 2013, the area of rape seeding has increased 1.8 times from 1.3 to 2.3 million hectares, and the export of rape from the Russian Federation has increased by 80% to 383 thousand tons since the beginning of the year.
