Forecasts of world production and ending wheat stocks increased to record levels

In the October balance the experts, the USDA once again increased the forecasts of world production, consumption and ending stocks of wheat in 2020/21 MG to record levels, it is still not reduced prices, which supports data reduction for the United States and unfavorable for winter crops, the drought in the United States and Russia.

the initial Estimate of world wheat stocks in 2020/21 MG decreased by 0.38 million tonnes to 299,4 million tons, which would still be at a record level, as beginning stocks in the US will decline by 0.43 million tons.

compared with the estimated September, the forecast for global wheat production in 2020/21 MG experts USDA increased by 2.59 million tons to a record 773,08 million tonnes, 8.8 million tonnes will exceed the level 2019/20 Mr. Increase production in Russia to 5 million tons to 83 million tons (73.6 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) kompensiruet partially by declines in Canada by 1 million tons to 35 million tons (32.3 million tons in 2019), Ukraine – by 1.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons (29.1 million tons), the EU by 0.6 million tonnes to 136,75 MMT (154.9 million t), Argentina by 0.5 million tonnes to 19 million tonnes (19.8 million tonnes). For Australia's crop forecast has not changed, however, in the case of favourable weather conditions it may increase.

Estimate world consumption of wheat is almost not changed and left at 751 million tonnes (748,23 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), while the import forecast increased 1 million tons to 186,23 million tonnes, thanks to increased purchases by China from 7 to 7.5 million tons.

the Forecast of wheat exports increased 0.5 million tons to 189,92 m t (185,7 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG), since the increase of export from Russia of 1.5 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes compensates for its reduction in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million tons and Argentina by 0.5 million tons to 13 million tons.

Estimate of world ending wheat stocks in 2020/21 MG increased with 319,37 to record 321,45 million tonnes (299,4 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to their gains in Russia by 2.75 million tonnes, the EU – 0.4 million tonnes, China – 0.5 million tons, which offset the decline in Canada, 0.7 million tonnes and Ukraine by 0.5 million tons

After updating the December futures in Chicago on Wednesday, the 5-year high investors continued to fix profit, which puts pressure on prices at all-time bearish USDA report.

December futures in the U.S. fell:

the

2.48 $/t to 196,76 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

0.46 $/t to 199,79 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• 0.55 $/t to 218,16 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago