Forecasts of a decline in global wheat production and stocks are pushing prices up

2021-08-11 12:03:00
Machine translation
Forecasts of a decline in global wheat production and stocks are pushing prices up

On the eve of the release of the updated USDA balance sheet, analysts publish their own estimates, which predict a decrease in global wheat production and reserves. This increases speculative price growth on stock exchanges and physical markets, and also supports prices for Black Sea wheat.

 

According to the average estimate of analysts, in the August USDA report, the forecast for global wheat production will be reduced by 4.6 million tons, and final reserves – by 9.7 million tons to 287.1 million tons due to a decrease in the harvest in the United States and Canada.

 

September US futures rose:

  • by 5 5.79 / ton to Чикаго 267.1/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 4 4.68 / ton to H 262.4/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 2 2.48/ton to.336.2 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

 

According to FranceAgrimer, as of August 2, wheat was harvested in France on 66% of the area compared to 97% last year, which is 11 days lower than the annual average. Possible deterioration of grain quality due to prolonged rains and the depreciation of the euro against the dollar to the level of 1 1,172/€ are warming up quotes.

 

During the week, the EU exported 255 thousand tons of wheat, but export data for the previous week increased to 577 thousand tons, so total exports since the beginning of the season reached 1.7 million tons, which is 3% ahead of last year's pace.

 

  • On MATIF in Paris, September wheat flour futures rose by €5.25/ton yesterday to €234.5/ton or.274.5/ton, and December futures rose to €237.75/ton or. 278.7/ton.

 

Black Sea wheat futures also rose sharply yesterday:

  • August-by 1 1 / ton to 2 269.75 / ton,
  • September-by 8 8.25 / ton to 2 290.75 / ton,
  • December-by 6 6/ton to 3 302/ton, crossing the psychological level of 3 300 / ton.

 

Supply prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in August – September increased by another.10/ton to F 275/ton FOB, while prices for Ukrainian wheat reached 2 265-270/ton FOB, but demand for it remains insignificant, especially from Asian buyers.

 

The South Korean Association of millers Kofmia purchased 50 thousand tons of Australian soft wheat at a price of F 290-292/ton FOB and hard wheat at a price slightly higher than F 300/ton FOB, which will keep prices for Black Sea wheat from further growth.

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