Forecasts of a record sunflower harvest in 2026/27 MY do not yet affect prices in Ukraine

Despite expectations of a record global sunflower production in the 2026/27 MY season, the domestic market of Ukraine has not yet shown a significant reaction. Purchase prices remain stable due to limited seed supply and sustained demand from processing enterprises.

 

According to preliminary estimates by Oil World analysts, the global sunflower harvest in the 2026/27 MY season may increase to 63.3 million tons, compared to 57.5 million tons in the previous marketing year and the average of 56.2 million tons over the past five years.

 

The main factors for the increase in production will be the expansion of the sown area and the recovery of yields, primarily in the Black Sea countries. High prices for sunflower in previous months and lower fertilizer costs compared to grain crops have encouraged farmers to increase the area under oilseeds.

 

According to Oil World estimates, the total area of sunflower harvest in the world in the 2026/27 MY will increase to 34.5 million hectares compared to 33 million hectares last season and 30.4 million hectares in the 2024/25 MY.

 

The largest expansion of sown areas is forecast in the Russian Federation, where they could increase by 1.7 million hectares compared to the previous year. Significant increases are also expected in Argentina (+0.6 million hectares), as well as in the EU countries, Ukraine, the USA and Turkey.

 

At the same time, the sowing campaign in Ukraine and the Russian Federation was delayed due to the cool spring, which may shift the start of mass harvesting to later dates in September.

 

Sunflower sowing has already been completed in Ukraine. According to current data, 4.86 million hectares have been sown with the crop. However, some analysts estimate the actual area at over 5 million hectares and predict a harvest of 13–14 million tons.

Favorable weather conditions in May and June, as well as sufficient rainfall, create good harvest potential in almost all major growing regions.

 

Additional pressure on the oilseed market is created by a sharp decline in world oil prices. The fall in oil prices weakens the biofuel market and negatively affects vegetable oil prices. In this regard, a further decline in sunflower oil prices is expected in July-August under the influence of cheaper rapeseed oil in the EU and a decrease in forward prices on the Black Sea market.

 

Currently, the demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine remain at the level of $ 1,320–1,325 /t DAP Black Sea ports. At the same time, offers for the supply of sunflower oil to Turkey in October are already being formed at the level of $1,200–1,250/t, which indicates expectations of a further decline in the market after the arrival of the new harvest.

 

Despite this, purchase prices for sunflower with 50% oil content remained stable over the last week within the range of 32,400–33,500 UAH/t. The market is supported by a low supply of seeds from producers, although the number of active buyers remains limited.

 

An additional pressure factor may be the beginning of the rapeseed processing season. Some plants will switch to processing a new crop, which will reduce competition for sunflower and may lead to a correction in purchase prices.

 

If favorable weather conditions in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and EU countries continue, and forecasts of record sunflower production are confirmed, the market will gradually price in future supply increases, which will increase pressure on prices for the new crop.