Forecasts of drought and heat in the United States led to a speculative increase in wheat prices

2021-06-02 12:02:24
Machine translation
Forecasts of drought and heat in the United States led to a speculative increase in wheat prices

Yesterday's morning speculative increase in prices for corn by 7.7% and wheat by 6% on US stock exchanges, caused by frosts and heat forecasts in June, stopped the publication of USDA reports at the end of trading.


Wheat markets in the United States grew rapidly yesterday on forecasts of a strong heat wave that will prevail until mid-June in the main agricultural regions of the country. Spring wheat in the Northern American Plains is particularly at risk.


During the week, 256.5 thousand tons of wheat were inspected for exports in the United States, and in general, wheat exports amounted to 25.23 million tons in the season, which, although 1.11% higher than in the previous season, is lower than the USDA forecast of 26.26 million tons.


According to the USDA report, the number of winter wheat crops in the United States in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 1% to 48% (51% last year). 79% of winter wheat crops have entered the earing phase, compared to 67% a week ago, 76% last year and 78% on average for 5 years as of this date.


Spring wheat in the United States is sown in 97% of the planned area, compared with 90% last year and 93% on average over 5 years. Seedlings were obtained on 80% of crops (65% last year and 73% on average). 45% of crops are in good or excellent condition, although last year there were 80% of them.


July US futures rose:

  • by 1 11.02 / ton to Чикаго 254.81/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 8 8.91/ton to H 234.24 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 1 16.17/ton to.283.47 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.


French wheat rose in price yesterday after American wheat, as the risks to crops due to adverse weather in the United States exceeded the factor of improving weather in the EU.


  • September wheat flour futures for MATIF rose 5 €/ton to a two-week high of 218.75 €/ton or 267.79 т / ton.


Black Sea wheat continues to rise in price. On the Chicago Stock Exchange, futures rose yesterday:

  • July-by 7 7/ton to 2 262 / ton,
  • August-by 4 4.5 / ton to 2 261.5 / ton,
  • December-up to 2 274/ton.


In Ukraine, purchase prices for wheat of the old and new crops remain in the port at the level of 2 235-238/ton, although the demand for the old crop is minimal. An increase in stock prices for corn and wheat in the near future may lead to an increase in prices and demand for Black Sea wheat.

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