Forecasts of damage to 10% of winter wheat in the southern United States led to a speculative jump in prices

2021-04-21 12:01:13
Machine translation
Forecasts of damage to 10% of winter wheat in the southern United States led to a speculative jump in prices

Yesterday, wheat prices on world stock exchanges rose rapidly on forecasts of frosty weather in the United States for the coming days, which, according to Commodity wheat Group estimates, could damage up to 10% of winter durum wheat crops in the southern plain of the United States. It is expected that in the states of South and North Dakota frosts at night will reach -5 OhC, and in the Midwest of the United States -1...-2 OhC, although a week ago frosts in France up to -5...-8 OhC almost did not damage the crops.

 

In addition to frosts, which will slow down the sowing of spring crops, quotes supported the growth of neighboring soybean and corn markets.

 

May futures rose:

  • by 2 2.76 / ton to Чикаго 242.41/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 3 3.21 / ton to H 228.08/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 1 1.65/ton to.245.81 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.    

 

The French wheat market also ended trading higher on news of possible losses of crops in the United States.

 

  • May wheat flour futures for MATIF rose by 6.5 €/t to 223 €/t or 2 268.54/t, while September futures rose by 3.25 €/t to 210.25 €/t or.252.93/t.  

 

Export prices for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% after world prices increased, according to Icarus estimates, by 1 1/ton to F 248/ton FOB, according to the SovEcon center – by 3 3/ton to F 247/ton FOB, according to Rusagrotrans – to 2 245-248/ton FOB. But demand prices for deliveries in May – June remain at F 240/ton FOB.

 

  • July Black Sea wheat futures yesterday rose by $3/t to $250/t, August futures – by $6.75/t to $255/t, and December futures-by $ 2.75 / t to $ 258 / t, which significantly supported prices on the physical market.

 

The weather in Europe, Ukraine and Russia contributes to the development of crops, so buyers are holding back purchases of both old and new crops in anticipation of further price reductions, even despite the delay in sowing spring crops in Russia.

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