Rainfall forecasts in Argentina halted soybean price growth, which will affect prices in Ukraine

Dry weather in Argentina in the last two weeks and an unexpected decrease in the forecast for the soybean harvest in the US significantly supported soybean prices on world exchanges, which strengthened export demand in Ukraine.

During the week, export demand prices for GMO soybeans with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by $5-10/t to $375-380/t or UAH 17,800-18,100/t, although processors with significant stocks left prices at UAH 16,800-17,500/t with delivery to the plant.

The rise in the price of sunflower oil allowed factories to raise prices for sunflower and return to its processing, abandoning soybean processing amid problems with the sale of soybean meal.

Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans remain low at $410-415/t or UAH 19,000-19,300/t delivered to Black Sea ports or the western border. However, demand from European buyers and the premium for the absence of GMOs are minimal. Processor prices have risen to UAH 18,500-19,000/t delivered to the factory and have stalled pending stabilization of export prices.

In the 2024/25 MY (as of January 12), EU countries increased soybean imports by 14% compared to the previous season to 7.38 million tons, of which 48.5% were purchased in the USA (54% last year), 33.5% in Brazil (27%), and 11.5% or 845 thousand tons in Ukraine (8% or 527 thousand tons).

Based on the USDA report (on Friday and Monday), March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by 6%, but traders began to book profits and prices fell by 1% to $383/t (+5.9% for the month).

Rain forecasts in Argentina this week will reduce the speculative impact on quotes, but next week the heat will reach 30-35 ^° C and there will be no precipitation, which will worsen the condition of crops. At the same time, good weather with abundant rains in Brazil contributes to the formation of a good harvest of soybeans and corn.

The quotes are supported by data from the NOPA association report, according to which in December, the volume of soybean processing in the US increased by 7% compared to November to a record 5.62 million tons, which exceeds analysts' forecasts and is 5.8% higher than in December 2023. Soybean oil stocks reached a 5-month high of 563 thousand tons, but remain 9.1% lower than in December 2023.