Forecasts of a good wheat harvest in the USA and in the EU continue to lower stock market quotations

2024-05-17 09:52:45
Machine translation
Forecasts of a good wheat harvest in the USA and in the EU continue to lower stock market quotations

After a speculative increase during the month by 15-20% against the background of frosts in the Russian Federation, this week wheat quotes fell by 2.5-4.2% thanks to improved crop forecasts in the EU and the US after heavy rains, as well as profit-taking by traders.

 

The authorities of the Russian Federation reported that it is necessary to replant not 500, but 830 thousand hectares of spring crops, which is 1% of their total area in the country. Against the background of unfavorable weather in the central and southern regions, the SovEkon agency lowered the forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation in 2024 by 7.3 to 85.7 million tons, which will be 1 million tons less than the average 5-year indicator.

 

Traders switched their attention from the Russian Federation to the weather in the USA and Europe, in particular in the Black Sea region, where there are favorable conditions for the development of crops.

 

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2024/25 FY from 121.8 to 123.5 million tonnes thanks to an increase in the Spanish harvest, but this figure will be inferior to the 2023/24 FY 126.1 million tonnes harvested. Forecast corn harvest in the EU was reduced from 63.4 to 63.3 million tons, which will exceed last year's 62.4 million tons.

 

The Kansas Crop Tour showed that the average yield of HRW wheat could reach 3.13 t/ha (2.02 t/ha last year and 2.85 t/ha over the 5-year average), and total wheat production in the state will reach 7.9 million tons, which will exceed the USDA's May forecast by 8.4%.

 

July futures for new harvest wheat rose yesterday:

  • by 0.4% to $243.7/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.5% from Monday),
  • by 0.3% to $247.4/t – for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-4%).
  • by 0.9% to $264.8/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-2.5%),
  • by 0.9% to €248.5/t or $270/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-4.2%).

 

Precipitation predicted for the coming days in the southeast of Ukraine and the south of the Russian Federation will improve the condition of wheat crops and the prospects of the harvest.

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