US rainfall forecasts in wheat growing regions are lowering stock quotes

The recent rainfall in the United States will continue for another week. This will lead to lower wheat prices, which have recently risen amid a drought in the southwest of the Plains. According to NOAA forecasts, up to 100 mm of precipitation will fall in South Dakota during the week, and up to 80-100 mm in East Kansas and Northeast Texas. Cold and humid weather delays the sowing of spring wheat and corn, but improves the condition of winter crops.

Traders on Friday actively fixed profits and closed long positions in wheat, reducing speculative pressure on quotations.

As a result, wheat futures fell by 2.5-4%, namely:

• May futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago - by $ 11.11 / t to $ 383.5 / t, and July - by $ 11.02 / t to $ 387.9 / t,
• May HRW wheat for Kansas City winter wheat futures - by $ 15.43 / t to $ 402.1 / t, and July - by $ 13.04 / t to $ 406.3 / t,
• for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis, May futures - by $ 10.75 / t to $ 426.7 / t, and September - by $ 8.91 / t to $ 423.7 / t,
• May futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago - by $ 2.75 / t to $ 391.5 / t, and August - by $ 2.75 / t to $ 361.25 / t.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, 91% of winter soft wheat crops remain in good or excellent condition, as they did a week ago, compared to 81% last year.

Wheat exports from the EU grew by 38% over the week to 213.7 thousand tons, and in the season reached 23 million tons (23.3 million tons last year) with the USDA forecast of 34 million tons, which is unlikely to be justified.

The European Commission has lowered the forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2022/23 MY by 1.2 million tons to 130.1 million tons due to lower yields, although the export forecast remained at 40 million tons.

• May wheat futures on the Paris Euronext on Friday fell by 15.75 € / t to 400.75 € / t (-1.6% for the week), but the dollar price against the background of the euro to 1.0525 $ / € fell even more - to 421.8 $ / t, while September futures fell by only 5 € / t to 380 € / t, adding a total of 3.6% for the week.

The Philippine importer SMC bought Indian wheat at a re-tender at a price of $ 380 / t C&F.

The Turkish state agency TMO bought 165 thousand tons of food wheat with 12.5% protein at an average price of $ 420.44 / t EXW and 45 thousand tons of wheat with 13.5% protein at an average price of $ 423.27 / t EXW with delivery from May 17 to August 10. In addition, at an international tender on April 29, TMO purchased 270 thousand tons of food wheat with a protein content of 12.5%.

As a result of the war in Ukraine, Turkey faced a rise in wheat prices to a 10-year high, which led to a reduction in exports from both Ukraine and Russia.