Rainfall forecasts in the US and Argentina, as well as reduced rainfall in Brazil, will be the main weather factors affecting grain prices

Hot and dry weather that set in last week in the central part of the United States led to a sharp speculative increase in wheat prices on US exchanges. But very heavy precipitation is forecast this week, which will contribute to the development of winter crops and spring wheat sowing in the United States.

Several fronts in the first half of March will bring heavy rainfall to the Midwest and the Central and Southern Plains of the United States, which will allow moisture to accumulate ahead of planting.

Intense rains are moving from central Brazil to the north, which will accelerate the soybean harvest and planting of a second crop of corn, although in southern regions where corn has already been sown, these rains will be unnecessary.

According to estimates by AgRural and Safras & Mercado agencies, as of February 27, 2026, soybeans have been harvested in Brazil on 40–45% of the area (38-40% last year), and in the key states of Mato Grosso – on over 65% of the area and in Paraná – on 45-50% of the area.

According to Conab, about 47% of the planned area has already been sown with second-crop corn (53% on average over 5 years and 44% last year). Soil moisture generally remains low, so the amount of precipitation in March-April will determine the prospects for the second corn crop.

Argentina received scattered showers last week, but they were not enough to reduce the negative impact of the drought on crops. This week, heavier rainfall is forecast over a larger area, but this will not improve the condition of crops. Rainfall in January and February was below normal, which negatively affected the production prospects of both corn and soybeans.

At the same time, dry weather is contributing to the active harvesting of a record sunflower crop in Argentina, so production forecasts have already increased to 6.5-7.2 million tons compared to 5.2 million tons last year.

According to a report by the Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (BAGE) and data from the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR), as of February 27, 2026, sunflower has been threshed on 43.5-45% of the area, which is 7% ahead of the 5-year average. The average sunflower yield in the north of the country (where the harvest is complete) was 2.65 t/ha (Chaco) and 2.2 t/ha (northern Santa Fe), and in the central regions, where harvesting has intensified, the figures are even higher.

Normal spring weather has been established in Ukraine with slight frosts at night and positive temperatures during the day, which contributes to the gradual melting of snow and the replenishment of winter crops. Due to night frosts, corn harvesting continues in the western regions. At the end of the week, precipitation is forecast in the Black Sea region, which will improve soil moisture on the eve of sowing spring crops in the south and east of Ukraine.