The forecast of grain production in Russia in 2020 will increase again

According to the forecast of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", in 2020, Russia will increase grain production up to 126.2 million tonnes compared to of 120.7 million tons in 2019, what will be the second figure after the record 135.5 million tonnes in 2017 But under favorable weather conditions, the experts admit yield increase to 127 million tons.

in Particular, compared to 2019, the yield of wheat will increase from 74.3 to 80.3 mln t, rye (the vast majority of city – winter) – from 1.4 to 2.3 million tons due to increase in acreage from 0.85 to 1.16 million hectares.

with increase in sowing areas of winter crops to a record 18.5 million hectares, their crop will grow from 57.2 million tons in 2019 to 63.9 million tons in 2020 After overwintering preserved 17.8 million hectares, compared with 17.4 million hectares a year ago.

at the same time, despite an increase in sowing areas of spring grains in comparison with last year, from 29.2 to 29.3 million hectares, their crop will be reduced to 62.4 from 63.5 million tonnes due to reduced yields from 21.7 to 21.3 C/ha.

winter wheat Yield is forecast at 37 kg/ha (33,5 t/ha in 2019), which is the third-largest amount after 2017 and 2016. The amount of moisture in the main growing areas of winter crops remain on the middle level, with the exception of Crimea where they are in short supply.

Due to declining productivity from 23.3 to 22.8 t/ha barley production will be reduced from 20.5 to 19.1 million tonnes will Affect this decrease in acreage due to low domestic prices and poor export demand due to high competition on global markets.

the Production of maize will decrease from 13.9 to 13.5 million tonnes due to reduced yields from a record of 53.7 to 52 kg/ha, while the sowing area will remain at the level of 2.6 million hectares. Unwillingness to increase the area under maize is due to the low rate of export due to high competition from Ukraine and low prices in the domestic market.

we will Remind, the Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in wheat production by 3-5% to 76,5-78 million tonnes and total grain harvest at the level of 125,3 million tons

the Increase in harvest forecasts of wheat in Russia has led to falling forward prices for wheat harvest 2020, which for the month fell by 5-10 $/MT up to 190-195 $/t FOB for shipments in July-August. Against the backdrop of increasing forecasts for production in India and China, the pressure on prices will increase, especially in the case of the further falling of quotations of old crop wheat.