The wheat production forecast for Ukraine has been increased, and for the EU - again decreased

Strategie Grains experts again lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU based on preliminary harvest data. In comparison with July estimates, the forecast for the production of soft wheat in 2023/24 MR was reduced from 126.2 to 124.7 million tons (125.3 million tons in 2022/23 MR). At the same time, heavy rains in the north of Europe increase the risks of crop loss and a decrease in its quality. As a result of the deterioration of the weather in the south of Europe, the corn production forecast has been reduced by 2.1 million tons to 58.7 million tons, which will be 6.5 million tons higher than the dry previous year. The barley production forecast has been increased from 47.1 to 47.2 million tons, which is 4 million tons less than last year's harvest.

According to the updated forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, due to favorable weather, the grain yield in Ukraine reached an almost record 51.8 tons/ha, which will allow harvesting 76.7 million tons, although at the beginning of spring the gross harvest was estimated at 63.5 million tons, or by 13% less than in 2022. In June, at the beginning of the harvest, the forecast was increased to 68 million tons (-7% compared to 2022), and now it has been increased to 76.7 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 5%.

The total area of sowing of spring and winter cereals amounted to 10,895 thousand hectares (by 980 thousand hectares less than last year), but the almost record yield of 51.8 t/ha will allow to increase the production of grain, in particular wheat - up to 20.9 million tons, barley - up to 5.8 million tons, corn - up to 28.1 million tons.

The gross production of oil crops will reach 20.3 million tons, in particular, sunflower - 12 million tons, soybeans - 4.2 million tons, rapeseed - a record 4.2 million tons in recent years. In addition, it is planned to harvest 13.7 million tons of sugar beets .

So far, more than 16.5 million tons of grain and leguminous crops have been collected, of which 2.7 million tons have already been exported. The leaders of the harvest are the agrarians of the Mykolaiv region, who threshed 82% of the area.