IGC Forecast: Global Market for Grains and Oilseeds 2024/25 FY

Experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) in their September report left unchanged the forecast for global grain production in the 2024/25 marketing year at 2.315 billion tons (11 million tons more than in 2023/24 MY), as the decline in wheat production will be offset by the increase in the corn harvest.

 

The global grain consumption forecast was raised by 4 million tons to 2.325 billion tons, 9 million tons more than in the 2023/24 MY. However, due to an upward revision of initial stocks, the estimate for global ending stocks in 2024/25 MY was left at 581 million tons (a 10-year low), which is 10 million tons lower than in 2023/24 MY.

 

The global wheat production forecast was reduced by 1 million tons to 798 million tons (795 million tons in 2023/24 MY), mainly due to a lower harvest estimate in the EU. The forecast for global wheat ending stocks in 2024/25 MY was raised by 1 million tons to 267 million tons due to an upward revision of initial stocks by 2 million tons (272 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The global corn production forecast was lowered by 2 million tons to 1.224 (1.227) billion tons due to lower harvests in the EU and Ukraine, which is not offset by an increase in the U.S. The consumption forecast was raised by 1 million tons to 1.230 (1.223) billion tons, while ending stocks were reduced by 1 million tons to 276 (281) million tons.

 

The global soybean production forecast was maintained at a record 419 million tons, 26 million tons more than in 2023/24 MY. The consumption forecast was kept at 406 million tons, 21 million tons higher than in 2023/24 MY, and ending soybean stocks will be 82 million tons, 13 million tons higher than last season.

 

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 5% compared to the previous month but remains 15% lower than the same period last year.

 

The IGC GOI wheat sub-index increased by 4%, recently reaching a three-month high, driven by weather concerns in some exporting countries and broader geopolitical issues.

 

Despite the lack of favorable news, the IGC GOI corn sub-index strengthened by 5% m/m, aided by speculative and technical short-covering on the CME. The increase was also linked to stronger U.S. export premiums in the Gulf.

 

The IGC GOI soybean sub-index increased by 8%, driven by improved export demand in the U.S. and unfavorable planting weather in Brazil, though average prices are still 19% lower year-on-year.