Global soybean processing forecast raised due to increased demand for soybean oil and meal, but Ukraine under competitive pressure

Oil World experts have increased the forecast for global soybean processing in the 2025/26 MY by 2 million tons to 100.26 million tons, which will exceed the previous season's record (96.46 million tons) due to high processing margins and active demand for soybean oil and meal.

The volume of soybean processing in the United States in March increased compared to February from 5.83 to 6.3 million tons (5.63 million tons in March 2025), and in total in the season reached 42.6 million tons (39.16 million tons for this period in 2024/25 MY) due to an increase in processing capacity and domestic demand for soybean oil. Consumption of soybean meal in the country from October to March 2025/26 MY increased compared to the previous season by 8% or 1.4 million tons.

The volume of soybean processing in Brazil in March increased compared to February from 4.25 to 5.5 million tons (5.26 million tons in March 2025). and in total for the season reached 33.33 (31.94) million tons.

The volume of soybean processing in Argentina in March increased compared to February from 1.99 to 2.9 million tons (3.23 million tons in March 2025). and in total for the season reached 22.43 (24.14) million tons.

The steady increase in global demand for processed soybean products is keeping production and processing volumes high, even despite disruptions in supply chains.

However, Oil World experts note that in 2026 the global soybean meal market remains under pressure from reduced exports from Argentina, caused by a reduction and delay in the harvest, although this is partially offset by increased supplies from the USA and Brazil.

Soybean processing volumes in Argentina typically increase starting in March as the harvest and shipments to the port of Rosario increase. However, low inventories in early April are limiting soybean meal exports.

Prices for Argentine soybean meal for immediate delivery rose to $379/t FOB (+13% in three months), 18% higher than last year, as processors try to increase margins amid high costs.

Exports of soybean meal from Argentina in March increased compared to February from 1.4 to 2.1 million tons (2.26 million tons in March 2025), but in Q1 2026 decreased by 0.84 million tons compared to the same period last year. The main buyers were Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador, and an increase in supplies to the EU is also forecast.

After introducing a 10% duty on soybean exports, Ukraine will increase its processing to 3 million tons in the 2025/26 MY. The production of soybean meal may reach 2.4-2.5 million tons, which will allow for increased exports.
Exports of soybean meal and cake from Ukraine in March amounted to 147 thousand tons, and in total from September to February 2025/26 MY increased compared to the previous season from 566 to 784 thousand tons, of which 47% was purchased by Poland (295 thousand tons), 24% - Hungary (147 thousand tons), 12% - Turkey (76 thousand tons), 11% - Romania (70 thousand tons). Almost 74% of the meal Ukraine exports to the EU, which indicates its dependence on European demand.

In 2025/26, the EU imported 14 million tons of soybean meal, of which 50.9% came from Brazil, 34.6% from Argentina, and only 6.6% from Ukraine. Therefore, a decline in prices in the EU under the pressure of increased supplies from Argentina will significantly affect the Ukrainian market.

So far, increased processing is supporting exports, but in the context of structural changes in the global market, it will be important not only how much meal Ukraine can sell, but also its price.

Currently, demand prices for Ukrainian meal are $390-400/t DAP - western border, which allows it to compete with Argentine meal on the EU market, but increased supplies from South America will reduce demand.