The forecast for global sunflower production has been raised due to a good harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation

In an August report, USDA experts raised the forecast for global sunflower production in FY 2023/24 by 2%, thanks to a good harvest in Ukraine due to favorable weather conditions, which will exceed the 2022/23 FY by 6.4%, but will be 2% below the record level of 2021/ 22 MR.

USDA experts increased the forecast of world sunflower production by 1.1 to 55.8 million tons (52.441 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for the Russian Federation - by 1 to 17.5 (16.254) million tons and Ukraine - by 1.1 to 13.5 (12.2) million tons, while UZA estimates it at 12.7 million tons. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were reduced by 0.65 to 10.85 (9.207) million tons, China – by 0.14 to 2.25 million tons, Kazakhstan – by 0.1 to 1.3 million tons, Turkey – by 0.1 to 1.65 million tons.

At the same time, the sunflower export forecast for 2023/24 MY was reduced compared to the previous season from 4.6 to 3.67 million tons, in particular for Ukraine – from 2.025 to 0.8 million tons. It is worth noting that the export forecast for 2022/23 MY remained at the level of 2.025 million tons, although the actual export for September - July amounted to only 1.85 million tons, so it is unlikely that 175 thousand tons of sunflowers will be shipped in August.

The forecast for sunflower processing in 2023/24 was increased for Ukraine by 0.6 to 12.7 million tons, for the Russian Federation by 0.6 to 16 million tons, while for the EU it was reduced by 0.4 to 10 million tons.

The estimate of the world final reserves of sunflower was increased by 0.571 million tons to 5.217 (5.614) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 0.5 to 1.6 million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.33 to 1.307 million tons, while the forecast for the EU was lowered from 0.636 to 0.424 million tons.

In Ukraine, late-season sunflower demand is increasing amid dwindling stocks and increased demand for sunflower oil in the EU, but as new-crop canola oil supplies increase and harvest approaches, vegetable oil prices will begin to fall.

Purchase prices for sunflowers remain at the level of UAH 15,000-16,000/ton with delivery to the factory, however, blocking the export of oil and meal from the Black Sea ports will put pressure on prices in the event of an increase in processing volumes.