Forecast of record corn harvest in South Africa will increase pressure on quotes
South African farmers are likely to harvest the country’s second-largest maize crop in history in 2025, thanks to heavy rainfall earlier in the year. According to the Crop Assessment Committee, commercial producers have threshed about 16.4 million tonnes of white and yellow maize — 0.7% more than forecast in October and significantly higher than last year’s harvest of 12.9 million tonnes, which was the lowest since 2019.
In the country, which is the largest producer of corn on the continent, white varieties are traditionally used to make the popular dish tat, while yellow varieties are mainly used for animal feed. The increase in yields could have a positive impact on inflation expectations, as corn is an important component of the food basket and the livestock sector.
Next season, farmers plan to increase the area under maize by 2.7% to 2.67 million hectares, which will be the highest figure since 2021. The northeastern regions of the country, including the Free State and Mpumalanga provinces, which provide the largest share of production, are forecast by the South African Meteorological Service to receive rainfall by mid-summer.
South Africa exports corn to neighboring countries, so a good harvest will increase competition with other exporters.
December corn futures in Chicago rose 2.1% to $170.5/t over the week (unchanged over the month), supported by high rates of corn exports from the US.
According to USDA, during November 20-27, corn exports from the United States decreased by 16% to 1.42 million tons, compared to the previous week, but in total since the beginning of the season amounted to 18.97 million tons, which is 70.7% higher than the same period last year.
In Brazil, the first corn crop has been sown, covering 99% of the planned area (97% last year). StoneX forecasts a total corn harvest of 134.4 million tons, while the USDA forecasts a total corn harvest of 131 million tons.
In Ukraine, export demand prices for corn remained at the level of UAH 9,950-10,050/t or $208-210/t with delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, despite the increase in supply and deliveries to the port.
Traders are actively buying corn because they fear that part of the harvest will be of low quality due to delayed harvesting and high grain moisture of up to 30-40%.
Already, there are observed consignments of corn with damaged and spoiled grains, which ports refuse to accept or accept at price discounts.
As of November 28, 22.486 million tons of corn were harvested in Ukraine from 3.31 million hectares or 75% of the area, with a yield of 6.79 tons/hectare, while last year at this time 96% of the area was threshed.
The growth in corn supply on the world market continues, so prices remain under pressure, and only adverse weather in South America in December - March can significantly affect quotes, although the precipitation forecast for December is currently neutralizing this support factor.
