The forecast increase in soybean production will increase pressure on oilseed prices in the new season

2020-06-15 12:06:42
Machine translation
The forecast increase in soybean production will increase pressure on oilseed prices in the new season

In the June balance experts, the USDA reduced compared to the may report from the global initial stocks of soybeans of 0.9 million tonnes up to 99.19 million tonnes, left unchanged production forecast and increased the forecast of consumption by 1 million tonnes to 361,74 million tonnes, which will lead to a reduction in global ending stocks by 2 million tonnes to 96,34 million tons.

 

But despite a bullish USDA report soybean futures in Chicago remained at 322 $/t

 

N' etnichna news about China's purchase of 720 thousand tonnes of U.S. soybeans the new crop is not supported by the market pressure decrease of stock exchange indices and oil prices owing to slower-than-expected recovery of the U.S. economy.

 

the updated forecast, the experts of Oil World estimated the global production of soybeans 2020/21 MG 363,4 million tons, 26.5 million tons higher than the figure recorded 2019/20 Mr (336,8 million tons) and significantly higher than the USDA forecast. According to their estimates, the United States in comparison with last year will increase soybean production from 96,8 to 114 mln t of soybeans (USDA evaluates it in 112,26 million tons), and Brazil – from 124 to 129 million tons of soybeans (USDA estimated at 131 million tons). Global demand for soybeans compared to the previous season will grow by 9 million tonnes to 355,7 million tonnes, which is by 6.04 million tonnes inferior to the June forecast of USDA, primarily through increased demand from China, which will increase imports of soybeans due to the increase in domestic demand for soybean meal.

 

Due to the sharp increase in the production world ending stocks of soybeans will increase in comparison with the planned figure for the current season by 8 million tonnes from 101,1 to 108,8 million tons In particular, in the US they will increase from 15.5 to 18.3 mln t, Argentina with 35 to 37 million tons, and Brazil – from 27.7 to 30 million tons.

 

These projections inhibit the increase in soybean prices new crop, although the physical market, they continue to grow, especially for Brazilian soy, which is against strengthening of the real to 5 BRL/$ and a record in exports to China has risen to 365-368 $/t FOB compared with 345-350 $/ton FOB for the us.

 

High world prices for soy beans and butter support prices for sunflower, soybeans and canola in Ukraine, where they grow due to a lack of offers from producers and projections of reductions in harvest of soybean and rapeseed in the new season.

 

For soybeans delivered to the plant processors offer 12500-12800 UAH/t, sunflower – 11800-12100 UAH/t, while rapeseed of the new harvest no GMO exporters in the port are ready to buy 13000 UAH/t, an increase in the production of sunflower in Ukraine and Russia on the background of increasing global soybean production will put pressure on prices of oilseeds in the new season.

Visitors’ comments (0):