The forecast of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine for the production of grain and oilseed crops in 2025 is much more pessimistic than the USDA estimates

The Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, V. Koval, has published a forecast for the production of grain and oilseed crops in 2025, according to which the harvest of grain crops will decrease by 10% compared to last year from 56.7 to 51 million tons, and oilseed crops - by 5% from 21.18 to 20.16 million tons due to a reduction in rapeseed production by 600 thousand tons.

"We are facing a difficult season. An abnormally warm winter, a lack of moisture in the spring, and then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a 10% reduction in the grain harvest and a 5% reduction in the oilseed harvest. This is definitely not a failure, but, God willing, we will harvest everything," said V. Koval.

According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2025 Ukraine can harvest the following harvest:

• wheat – 20-22 million tons (USDA estimates 23 million tons),
• corn – 26 million tons (USDA 30.5 million tons),
• barley - 4.5 million tons (USDA 5.7 million tons),
• other grains – 1.5 million tons,
• sunflower – 11.5 million tons (USDA 14.4 million tons),
• rapeseed – 3.2 million tons (USDA 3.7 million tons),
• soybeans – 5.5 million tons (USDA 6.6 million tons),
• sugar beets – 11 million tons.

At the same time, V. Koval did not talk about the forecast for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY, referring to "yet unknown harvest indicators."

The fairly favorable weather conditions in May have slightly improved the condition of crops and moisture reserves, but increased precipitation in June and July will be very critical for obtaining a better harvest than the ministry predicts.