Accelerating harvesting in the US and Ukraine and sowing in Brazil increases pressure on prices

Due to dry weather and early ripening, corn harvesting in the United States is faster than usual, and an increase in supply leads to a decrease in stock prices. In Ukraine, farmers primarily harvest soybeans and sunflowers, and the delay in harvesting corn forces traders to raise prices for deliveries to the port in October.

Heavy rains in southern Brazil and still insignificant in the center, as well as precipitation forecasts for the next week, contribute to the acceleration of soybean and corn sowing. Currently, 37.2% of the planned 4.4 million hectares are sown with corn of the first crop, compared to 34.5% last year and 31.3% on average over 5 years.

Corn in the United States as of October 3 was harvested on 29% of the area, which is 5% higher than last year and 7% higher than the 5 - year average. This increases pressure on prices, and even an increase in ethanol production and forecasts of a decrease in the grain harvest in the United States cannot support them. Therefore, the market is waiting for today's report on export sales.

According to the EIA Association, ethanol production in the United States against the background of rising oil prices for the week increased by 7% to 978 thousand barrels/day, while reserves decreased by 0.289 million barrels to a 5-month low of 19.931 million barrels.

• December corn futures on the Chicago SWOT fell 1% to вчора 209.5/ton yesterday, following oil prices.

Analysts expect that in the October forecast, USDA experts will reduce the estimate of corn yield in the United States from 176.3 to 175.9 bushels/acre, and production – from 381 to 380.3 million tons compared to the September report.

• November corn futures in Paris rose 4.5 €/ton to 242.25 €/ton or 2 279.88/ton yesterday amid a delay in harvesting in France, adding 5% over the week.
• November Black Sea corn futures on Chicago SWOT fell to 2 269.75/ton yesterday.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for corn in ports increased to 2 255-260/ton or UAH 7650-7700/ton due to a shortage of offers and delays in deliveries under previously concluded contracts. As of September 30, 1.87 million tons of corn with a yield of 5.21 t/ha were threshed in Ukraine from 358.77 thousand hectares or 7% of the area.

The increase in gas prices for industrial enterprises will increase the cost of drying at grain elevators by 2-3 times, which already reaches 90-100 UAH per 1 ton/%. Therefore, farmers will try to keep corn in the field for as long as possible in order to reduce its humidity and reduce costs, which will further delay deliveries.