Drought conditions in Ukraine, precipitation in Europe and Australia, and favorable harvest weather in the US and Canada will affect agricultural markets

In Ukraine, in the third decade of August, scattered precipitation occurred, which softened the conditions for the vegetation of late crops, and also replenished soil moisture reserves on the eve of sowing winter crops for the 2026 harvest. However, in many fields of the southern, central and eastern regions, where soil drought prevailed for a long time or the amount of precipitation was uneven, moisture reserves remained at an unsatisfactory level, which will further negatively affect the sowing of winter rapeseed. Weather forecasts do not promise precipitation in the next 2 weeks, so even sown rapeseed will not be able to develop normally.

A new cyclone has brought rain to much of Europe this week, and several waves of rain are also expected next week. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prepare the soil for the sowing of winter wheat, which begins this month.

However, these cyclones will not reach the Black Sea region again, most of which (especially in the south-west of the Russian Federation) is experiencing adverse weather. No active precipitation is forecast in the Black Sea regions, which not only reduces the yield potential of late crops, but also hinders the sowing of winter rapeseed and wheat.

More cyclones are expected to hit the Midwest and Plains this week and next, bringing precipitation and cooler temperatures. This will help soybean and corn fill in, as well as build up moisture ahead of winter planting.

In southern Brazil, rainfall continues, contributing to the accumulation of moisture and the active planting of the first corn and soybean crops. In central Brazil, the rainy season is expected to begin in late September, or more likely in October, and the attention of trailers will be focused on the weather in this region.
Recent heavy rains in Argentina have been beneficial for wheat planting, as well as increasing soil moisture before corn planting, which will begin in a few weeks.
A front with heavy showers will move across Western Australia over the next few days. The rain will ease as it moves east, but a new front will bring more rain early next week.

Western Australia has been experiencing favourable weather conditions over the past few months, while the east has seen variable weather and longer periods of low rainfall or complete drought. With wheat heading we may see some yield constraints in the east.
The recent rainfall in central China has been favorable, considering that the region has been struggling with heat and drought for much of the season. The northeastern corn and soybean growing areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will experience a short dry spell until mid-week, before another front moves in. The heavier rainfall in the central part also helps prepare the soil for sowing of winter wheat and rapeseed.