Drought in Turkey may reduce grain harvest

According to the Turkish Meteorological Service, the country's rainfall from October 2024 to January 2025 was 39.6% lower than the same period the previous year and 28.4% lower than the 1991–2020 average. The moisture deficit over the past four months could lead to a decrease in the country's grain harvest for the second year in a row.

Crops in the southeastern regions bordering Syria and Iraq, which are the main winter crop growing areas, are the most affected by the drought. In Central Anatolia, the largest wheat-producing region, which provides about 31% of the country's total harvest, average rainfall from October to January was 49% lower than in the same period in 2023/24 MY.

According to USDA, in the 2024/25 MY, Turkey harvested 19 million tons of wheat from an area of 7.25 million hectares with an average yield of 2.62 tons/hectare, while in the 2023/24 MY, 21 million tons of wheat were harvested from an area of 7.2 million hectares with an average yield of 2.92 tons/hectare.

Despite the reduction in production in 2024/25 MY, grain stocks in the country remain higher than usual. Domestic wheat consumption is expected to increase compared to 2023/24 MY from 19.7 to 20 million tons, primarily due to an increase in grain use in feed by 1 million tons to 1.3 million tons.