The increasing pressure of fundamental factors on the price of wheat

Yesterday the price of wheat of old and new crop on world markets continued to level off. The demand for wheat old crop falls, and prices fall, while interest in new crop pushes quotes up.

In Australia in the early months of 2020, was held sufficient to start the sowing of wheat the rainfall, so experts talk about increase in production after two seasons of drought. According to estimates of the USDA attaché in 2020/21 MG Australia collect 23 million tonnes of wheat, 1.5 times higher than harvest Mr 2019/20.

For Russia, the forecast of wheat production remains at a high level of 77-80 mln tonnes, while for Ukraine and the EU it decreased, so the markets adjust prices of wheat from the EU and the black sea.

the May futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 0.5 €/t to 203,25 €/t or 219,84 $/ton, as investors consider them porcupine, while September increased by 1,25 €/t to 191,75 €/t or 207,33 $/t

physical EU market prices for wheat old crop is almost unchanged, while prices of new crop wheat with protein 12.5%, and delivery in August-September dropped to 1-2 $/t to 202-203 $/t FOB Baltic countries, 205-206 $/t FOB Germany and 208-210 $/t FOB France.

black sea wheat of new crop with protein 12,5% offer 194-195 $/MT FOB Romania, 200-205 $/MT FOB Russia and 200-202 $/MT FOB Ukraine.

Exhausted 55% of the quota on grain exports from Russia does not support the prices of Russian wheat old crop as buyers limited purchases through the risk of problems with the shipment.

In the ports of Ukraine wheat prices fall as traders export programs.

high demand for increased purchases by importers of wheat in the current season will lead to higher stocks and the decline in imports in the new season. According to estimates of the USDA attaché, Saudi Arabia in 2020/21 MG will reduce wheat imports by 10.2% to 3.1 million tons due to increasing production to 500 thousand tons and an increase in initial reserves by 6% to 2,615 million tons whereas in 2019/20 MG wheat imports will grow by 7.8% to 3.45 million tons.

the price of wheat in Chicago on Wednesday lowered the speculators who played on the spread and a long position on wheat/short positions in corn, where the market bounced from a low of 10.5 years.

the May wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

the

2.48 $/t to 180,04 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

0.46 $/t to 185,09 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• 1.38 $/t to 199,51 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago