Increased shelling in the Donbas led to a new jump in wheat prices, but in Egypt the price decreased

After Russia announced the withdrawal of some troops from the border with Ukraine, stock prices began to fall, but yesterday's heavy artillery attacks along the entire contact line in the Donbas led to another jump in oil, corn and wheat prices. At the same time, the main fundamental factors continue to put pressure on the wheat market.

Egyptian at the tender on February 17 purchased 180 thousand tons of Romanian food wheat at a price of F 318/ton FOB or 3 338.55/ton C&F, which is 1 10.4/ton FOB or C 10.3/ton C&F lower than at the auction on January 28.

The cheapest offers at the tender were Ukrainian wheat with a price of F 315.3/ton FOB, but the victory was won by Romanian wheat due to the lower cost of freight and the absence of possible problems with shipment that may arise in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The offer prices of French wheat exceeded F 321.34/ton FOB, so against the background of the high cost of freight, it lost the competition with Black Sea wheat.

Experts of the Ministry of Agriculture of India raised the forecast of wheat production in the country in 2021/22 MG to 111.3 million tons, which will exceed last year's 107.8 million tons and the USDA forecast in February 109.5 million tons.

The international Grain Council IGC increased its estimate of global final wheat stocks by 2 million tons to 278 million tons due to a lower consumption forecast.

• March futures for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday rose by 0 0.75/ton to.310/ton, but for the week lost 3.2% of the price amid falling demand due to the threat of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Algeria's state agency OAIS purchased 700 thousand tons of food wheat at a tender on February 16 for delivery in April at a price of 3 345.5-346.5/ton C&F, which is 2 2.5-3.5/ton C&F lower than at last week's auction. In addition to the Black Sea and Argentine wheat, French wheat was also purchased, which was not bought for a long time due to political disputes between the countries.

Despite low export rates, wheat prices in the EU remain stable, as they are supported by political tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which are the main competitors for wheat sales.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext rose 2 €/ton to 265 €/ton or 3 301.2 / ton.

In the US, wheat prices rose by 1-2% following neighboring soybean and corn markets, and on data on the revival of exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, during the week, wheat export sales from the United States increased to 118 thousand tons, and actual exports – to 411.6 thousand tons, which is the highest in the last 18 weeks.

March futures rose:

• by 6 6.43 / ton to Чикаго 293.2/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5 5.51 / ton to H 302.4/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2 2.02/ton to.351.7 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Heavy precipitation in the United States in winter wheat growing regions reduces the impact of drought on plants, but the lack of precipitation remains, so the condition of crops is likely to be worse than last year.