Despite the decrease in stock market quotations, export prices for corn in Ukraine continue to rise, although the pressure on them increases

Corn prices, which rose sharply last week following oil quotes, fell amid profit-taking by traders. But in Ukraine, against the background of a shortage of offers and an increase in the price of fodder wheat, export prices for corn continued to rise, and from Monday they rose by another $5-6/t to $198-202/t or UAH 9,350-9,500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports . Processors have raised purchase prices to UAH 8,500-8,800/ton with delivery to the factory in order to compete with exporters.

In September, Ukraine exported only 428,000 tons of corn, which is inferior to previous seasons. But for October 1-9, exports grew to 312 thousand tons (168 thousand tons for the corresponding period last year), and in general in 2024/25 MR reached 3.08 million tons (2.85 million tons). The main buyers of Ukrainian corn remain EU countries - Italy, the Netherlands and Greece.

In July-September, the EU imported 5.2 million tons of corn (4.6 million tons in the corresponding period last year), of which 50% came from Ukraine (46% last year).

During the week, the Russian Federation has already attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports three times and damaged several ships, resulting in the deaths of sailors and port workers. Further shelling could lead to an increase in insurance premiums for ships calling at the ports, which would reduce export prices by $5-20/t.

Due to the drought and heat in Brazil, as of September 27, only 31.4% of the area was sown with first-harvest corn (36.6% last year), and 2% (4%) with soybeans. Late planting of soybeans can delay planting of second-crop corn and reduce planted acreage.

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 2.6% on the week to $165.7/t (+4.2% on the month), but the decline could accelerate the decline in oil prices by 5.6% in two days and favorable weather for harvesting in the US, and a possible increase in the yield forecast in Friday's USDA report.

November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell just 1.4% on the week to €213.25/t or $233/t (+6.4% on the month) as they are supported by a reduced crop in the eastern EU and the poor quality of corn due to the high content of aflatoxins.

In the USA, on October 6, corn was harvested on 30% of the area (against traders' expectations of 34% and the 5-year average of 27%). Dry and warm weather in the coming weeks will speed up harvesting and reduce losses.

An increase in the amount of precipitation in Brazil reduces the speculative impact on prices of the weather factor. According to Conab, 26% of the area has already been sown with first-harvest corn (27% last year). According to Safras&Mercado estimates, corn sales in the country in 2024 amounted to 59%, which almost corresponds to last year's 59.9%, but is inferior to the 5-year average level of 67.4%. This means that farmers are confident about the new crop and are ready to sell it at low current prices.

The lack of active demand for corn from China, the increase in the harvest in the USA, the acceleration of sowing in Brazil and the risks of increasing insurance premiums for ships in Ukrainian ports may in the near future turn the prices of grain in Ukraine downwards.