Despite the forecasts of a decrease in the harvest, the purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have decreased somewhat

A new wave of dry and hot weather has arrived in Ukraine, which will intensify the drying of soybean, corn and sunflower crops and further reduce their yield potential, especially in the central and eastern regions. After the abnormal heat in the western and northern regions, there were precipitations that reduced the stress on the plants, but in the center and southeast of the country there were no significant rains, so the plants lost their lower leaves and stopped developing.

In the August report, USDA experts reduced the forecast of the corn harvest in Ukraine by only 0.5 million tons to 27.2 million tons (32.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY), although UZA and other local analysts lowered their forecasts to 23-24 million tons. Some experts believe that the harvest will be only 21-22 million tons, since in the central and eastern regions part of the crops have already been harvested for silos.

Traders expect the corn harvest to start 3 weeks earlier than usual, so they have opened the reception of the new crop at the ports. During the week, purchase prices decreased by 5-6 $/t to 170-175 $/t SRT - port against the backdrop of falling global quotations.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2024/25 MR (as of August 16), Ukraine exported 2.06 million tons of corn (1.57 million tons for the same period last year), but in August the export rate will decrease.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, December corn futures rose 2% to $157.5/t yesterday (-3.75% for the month) after falling to their lowest level since 2020 on Friday, amid speculative buying and active exports from the USA.

During August 9-15, the export of corn from the United States almost doubled compared to the previous week to 1.17 million tons, and in general in 2023/24 MR reached 50.1 million tons, which is 38.47% ahead of last year's pace. However, by September 1, it is unlikely to reach the USDA forecast of 57.15 million tons.

On the exchange in Paris, November corn futures during the week fell by another 4.1% to 194.75 €/t (-11.4% for the month), despite forecasts of a decrease in the harvest in the EU.

USDA experts lowered the corn harvest forecast in the EU from 64 to 60.5 million tons (61.5 million tons in FY 2023/24), but left the import forecast at 18 million tons (19.5 million tons).

According to the data of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of August 14, 45.56 million tons of corn were harvested in Argentina from 97.8% of the areas with an average yield of 6.49 tons/ha, so the overall harvest forecast remains at the level of 46.5 million tons. , while the USDA estimates it at 50 million tons. At the same time, experts of the Rosario Grain Exchange raised the estimate of the corn harvest in Argentina in 2023/24 MR from 147.5 to 149 million tons.