Despite an increase in Brazil's harvest forecast, soybean prices remain high due to domestic demand

StoneX has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest in the 2025/26 MY by 1.9 million tons to 181.6 million tons, 1.6 million tons higher than the USDA forecast. The adjustment is due to good yields and an increase in the area sown in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The forecast for corn production in the country has also been increased by 1.3 million tons to 137 million tons, although the USDA estimates it at 132 million tons. At the same time, StoneX increased the forecast for the first corn crop by 4% to 28.3 million tons, and left the second crop (which makes up the bulk of production) unchanged at 106.1 million tons.

July futures for US soybeans in Chicago fell 1% yesterday to $445/t, although they rose 1.8% in the week and 2.3% in the month amid a sharp increase in soybean oil prices in the US.

An increase in the crop forecast in Brazil, high planting rates and low export rates from the US have not yet led to a decline in soybean prices, which are supported by high soybean oil prices.

According to the NASS weekly report, as of May 3, soybeans in the US have already been sown on 33% of the planned area, which is significantly higher than the average of 23% for this time of year.

Total soybean exports from the US in the 2025/26 MY amounted to only 33.27 million tons, which is 23.5% less than in the same period last year.

In Ukraine, demand for soybeans remains higher from processors than exporters, as the latter are reducing their programs due to a lack of large-lot offers, leading to lower prices.

Export demand prices for GMO soybeans remain at $430-435/t with delivery to ports, while for non-GMO soybeans they have increased by $5-10/t to $465-470/t with delivery to ports and the western border.

Over the past week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans increased by another 200-300 UAH/t to 21,000-21,700 UAH/t ($420-430/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the factory, while prices for non-GMO soybeans reached 21,500-21,700 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

Soybean exports from Ukraine in April amounted to only 158.5 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the season reached 1.65 million tons. Given the decrease in export rates at the end of the season, the volume of shipments is unlikely to exceed 2 million tons, so processors will be able to process up to 3 million tons of soybeans this season.

South America continues to saturate the world market with offers of soybeans and soybean meal, which puts pressure on prices, including in Ukraine, and currently the main factor supporting prices remains high oil prices.