Demand and export prices for wheat in Ukraine remain stable

Last week, wheat stock quotes continued to decline, losing about 5.8–10.9% in two weeks amid improving weather conditions in exporting countries and the start of harvesting a new crop in the US and China.

 

At the same time, Ukraine continues to have high export demand for wheat, which supports the domestic market. Purchase prices for old-crop wheat have even shown a slight increase, while prices for the new crop remain somewhat lower.

 

The increase in the forecast for wheat production in Ukraine by USDA experts for the 2026/27 MY by 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million tons (24.1 million tons in the 2025/26 MY), as well as the increase in the export forecast by 1 million tons to 14 million tons (14 million tons), confirm the continued high demand for Ukrainian wheat in the new season.

 

In the first 13 days of June, wheat exports from Ukraine amounted to 0.55 million tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 13.1 million tons. By the end of the season, exports may practically reach the projected 14 million tons.

 

Over the past week, export purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine increased by 100–150 UAH/t to 11,000–11,150 UAH/t due to the strengthening of the dollar. At the same time, in currency equivalent they remained almost unchanged at $218–221/t. Prices for feed wheat also remained practically unchanged and are 10,800–10,900 UAH/t or $214–215/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

It is worth noting that due to favorable weather conditions, the potential for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is improving, so prices for the new crop have started to decline relative to the old one. Currently, food wheat of the new crop is offered at $212–217/t, and feed wheat — $202–205/t.

 

Wheat quotes on world exchanges changed little over the week, but September and December contracts continue to trade more expensively than July ones, indicating expectations of stable demand in the new season.

 

July wheat futures changed as follows during the week:

• increased by 1.1% to $216.7/t for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (September futures — $220.6/t);

• increased by 1.6% to $235.2/t — for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City ($237.1/t);

• decreased by 0.8% to $226.3/t for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis ($235.4/t);

• September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris fell by 0.5% to €199.75/t or $238.6/t (December - €206/t).

 

According to NASS Crop Progress, in the United States, winter wheat was harvested on 25% of the area as of June 14, compared to the five-year average of 13%. The share of winter wheat crops in good and excellent condition increased by 2% to 27% over the week (52% last year), and spring wheat - by 3% to 55% (57% last year).

 

An additional factor influencing the market remains the sharp drop in oil prices. The decline in energy costs is increasing pressure on oilseed markets and may reduce demand for corn biofuels, which will negatively affect the feed segment of the grain market.

 

In the near term, feed wheat prices may remain under pressure, while the food wheat market looks more resilient. Crop reductions in the US and EU compared to last year may keep demand for Black Sea wheat high and contain price declines.