Demand for Ukrainian corn decreases as buyers prefer cheaper American corn

The sharp rise in prices for Ukrainian corn, caused by the reduction in production, significantly increased the demand for cheap American corn.

 

According to the USDA, export sales of corn from the United States for October 10-17 increased to 3.6 million tons, which was 62% higher than the average of the previous 4 weeks. And in general, in 2024/25 MR, the export of corn reached 17.5 million tons with a forecast of 59 million tons (compared with 13 million tons for the same period last year).

 

Against the backdrop of stronger demand, December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 4% for the week to $165/t (+1.7% for the month).

 

Favorable weather and a strong harvest in the US have increased the supply of corn in the market, increasing the pressure on quotations.

 

Consumption of corn for the production of ethanol rose by 3.7% to 2.73 million tons for the week, and the total for the season reached 18 million tons (against the USDA forecast of 138.5 million tons), which is in line with last year's processing pace, so it did not support the quote .

 

Increased rainfall in central Brazil boosts soybean planting and eases concerns about a possible delay in second-crop corn planting, reducing speculative pressure on quotes.

 

The increase in supplies of cheap corn from Brazil and the USA and the reduction of demand from China led to a drop in the export prices of corn demand in Ukraine, which in the Black Sea ports decreased to $195-198/t or UAH 9,000-9,250/t, although recently they reached 205 -208 $/t.

 

Since the beginning of September, prices for Ukrainian corn have risen by 15% to $200/t, while for American corn in Chicago - by 2.9% to $165/t, and for European corn in Paris - by 6% to $228.6 /t.

 

In 2024/25 MR (as of October 21), Ukraine exported 3.84 million tons of corn, which is 13% higher than last year's figure (3.4 million tons), but the pace of deliveries is gradually decreasing.

 

Ukrainian farmers are actively selling wheat and sunflower against the background of high prices, so traders need to maintain corn prices at a high level in order to purchase the required volumes.