Demand for Ukrainian corn remains stable thanks to the delay in harvesting

The delay in harvesting and the need to form export lots before the completion of the grain corridor forced traders to intensify purchases, which led to an increase in prices to the level of the week before last.

In Ukraine, as of October 21, from 12% of the area or 528 thousand hectares, only 2.7 million tons of corn were threshed with a yield of 5.1 tons/ha, while last year on this date from 32% of the area or 1.7 million hectares, 11, 2 million tons with a yield of 6.34 tons/ha.

The opening of the Black Sea ports intensified the export of corn from Ukraine, which, thanks to last year's significant reserves, reached 6.3 million tons in the period from July 1 to October 24, in particular, in October - 1.45 million tons compared to 1.8 million tons and 0.385 million tons respectively for the same period last year.

Demand prices for corn for delivery to Black Sea and Danube ports increased by $5-10/t during the week to $190-215/t or UAH 7,500-8,500/t SRT port, returning to the level of the previous week.

Against the background of a sharp decrease in the cost of railway transportation and the need for quick delivery of corn to the port to fulfill export programs, traders at some elevators offered UAH 6,200-6,600/ton for corn.

Demand prices from European buyers remain stable, but a decrease in the volume of transportation to the western borders increased the profitability and speed of deliveries, which immediately led to an increase in the demand for corn at the elevators of the western regions.

According to APC-Inform, in 2021/22, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine increased corn exports by 13% compared to the previous season, from 23.9 to 27 million tons, which became the third largest indicator after the record 30 million tons of the 2018/19 season. Record monthly exports were recorded in November, December, February, August and September of the previous season, and December 2021 saw the largest monthly corn export on record.

The main buyer of Ukrainian corn in 2021/22 MY was China, which reduced its import compared to 2020/21 MY by 29% to 6 million tons, Spain, which increased it by 11% to 3.1 million tons, and Romania, which increased purchases from 379.7 thousand tons to 2.5 million tons.

APC-Inform experts believe that if the grain corridors continue to operate, Ukraine will export 24 million tons of corn in 2022/23 FY, which will be 11% less than the 2021/22 FY. Under the pessimistic scenario, the export of corn from Ukraine will not exceed 14.4 million tons.