Demand for Ukrainian corn remains low, despite the fact that the quota for duty-free imports to Turkey has been used by only 63%

Export demand for Ukrainian corn remains weak, although market participants expected it to pick up during the duty-free quota for supplies to Turkey, which is valid until July 31. The main reason for the low activity of importers was a good harvest of barley and wheat in Turkey, which is already being harvested. This reduced the country's need for imported corn, so Ukrainian exporters did not receive the traditional end-of-season premium, as was the case last year.

According to European traders, Turkish importers have already used 1.888 million tons of the 3 million tons import quota for corn, which is valid from April 20 to July 31, 2025. Corn imports within the quota are subject to a 5% duty, while outside the quota the duty rate is 130%.

Turkey will begin harvesting its new corn crop in August. According to the USDA, the country's corn production in the 2026/27 season will decrease to 7.1 million tons compared to 7.9 million tons in the current season. At the same time, corn imports will remain at 4.8 million tons.

Over the past seven days, export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have decreased by another $1–2/t and currently stand at $214–215/t or UAH 10,700–10,800/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Additional pressure on the market is created by the decline in the price of feed wheat to $208–210/t and feed barley of the new harvest to $193–195/t with delivery to ports.

Forecasts of hot weather in Europe and the US support global corn prices, but a further decline in oil prices significantly limits their growth potential.

A heat wave with temperatures of 34-38°C in France is supporting speculative growth in August corn futures on the Euronext Paris exchange, despite forecasts of higher yields in the EU. Over the past seven days, quotes have increased by 6.9% to €227.5/t or $258.6/t, which could support demand for Ukrainian corn on the western border.

A week of hot weather is also forecast in Ukraine, but corn has not yet entered the flowering phase due to delayed development, so the risks to the harvest remain limited in the near future.

On the CBOT exchange, July corn futures fell 1.9% to $159/t over the past week, which is the lowest level since the beginning of the 2025/26 season and 12% lower than a month ago.

At the same time, December contracts are trading about $11/ton higher than July contracts. The market expects the USDA's corn acreage report, to be released on June 30, to show a lower estimate of U.S. corn acreage than the March forecast, despite generally favorable weather conditions.

Favorable conditions for crop development remain in the US "corn belt", however, a heat wave with temperatures up to 33–35°C is forecast for next week, which may halt further declines in stock prices.

An additional negative factor for the market remains the fall in oil prices, which reduces the economic attractiveness of biofuel production and, accordingly, the demand for corn. Under such conditions, Ukrainian producers will have to decide whether to sell the remains of the old harvest at current prices or leave them as transitional stocks in anticipation of possible weather risks and the recovery of prices for the new harvest.