Demand for corn at the ports remains low, but could be supported by active exports
In Ukraine, the demand for corn with delivery to the port remains low against the background of the lack of free capacities at the terminals due to the delay in the actions of the vessels. The main exporters reduced their purchases due to the uncertainty with the operation of the grain corridor after March 19, so the purchase prices for the week fell in the Black Sea ports from $205-206/t to $200-202/t, and in the Danube ports - to $215-220/t. t.
European buyers lowered the demand prices for Ukrainian corn to $205-215/t DAP - border with Poland and $205-225/t DAP - border with Hungary and Slovakia.
Polish farmers continue to strike against the export of Ukrainian grain, which lowers the prices of their products, despite the announced state support program. This increases truck queues at the border and slows down deliveries from Ukraine, although wagon queues are gradually decreasing.
Ukrzaliznytsia reports that the queues at the western border crossings have decreased to 14,944 cars, and the average waiting time in the queues is up to 7.6 days, although the waiting time at the Batevo-Yepereshki crossing (which is currently the leader in grain transportation by ground transport) is 15 days. The crossings Izów - Hrubeszów (Poland) and Chop - Čirna nad Tisou (Slovakia) remain very busy. In May, UZ plans to launch 4 container trains to European countries.
According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine exported 17.415 million tons of corn in the 2022/23 financial year as of February 20, in particular, 2.1 million tons in February, while last year these figures were 18.7 and 3.16 million tons, respectively.
6% of corn crops in Ukraine are still unthreshed, the quality of which is likely to be unsatisfactory after the January thaw. Therefore, the final harvest in the current season will be approximately 27 million tons, and the updated USDA forecast for Ukraine at the level of 22.5 million tons looks quite realistic.
In February, the pace of corn exports was quite high, and will remain so until mid-March, as there are 120 ships in the queues to the ports, which will take 4-4.5 million tons of grain and oil crops, including 2 million tons of corn.
March corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange were almost unchanged for the week and traded at $267/t, but the pressure on them is increasing due to low export rates from the USA.
