Improving harvesting conditions and forecasts of a good harvest in Canada are increasing pressure on canola and rapeseed prices

Statistics Canada StatCan in its September report lowered the country's canola yield forecast for the 2026/27 MY by 8.3% to 41.8 bushels/acre, and increased the estimate of the sowing area by 8.4% compared to the previous year to a record 23.2 million acres, which will allow the canola harvest to be almost at the level of last year - 22.1 million tons (17.8 million tons in the 2024/25 MY). Recall that USDA experts in their September report left the forecast for canola production in Canada at 22.5 million tons (22.23 million tons in the 2025/26 MY).

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 0.2% yesterday to CAD 827/t or $591/t (-0.6% for the week, 0% for the month), remaining under pressure from delayed canola harvests in Canada due to excessive rains over the past two weeks.

However, warm and dry weather has now set in in the Canadian prairies, which will last another 7-14 days and will allow for faster harvesting.

In Saskatchewan, as of September 7, 2026, canola had been harvested on only 9% of the area, in Manitoba - on 15%, and in Alberta - on 2.4%, which is significantly lower than last year, when 20-30% of the area was threshed on this date.

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.6% yesterday to €550.75/t or $635/t (-1.2% for the week, -1% for the month), but remain at a high level thanks to a 20% jump in oil prices for the month caused by the blockade of oil exports from Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Houthis.

The US talks with the Yemeni Houthis (who would have negotiated with the rebels before?), who promise not to fire on or block American or Israeli ships moving through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, cooled oil prices a bit yesterday. Quotes fell by 3.8% and could fall further if pressure on the Houthis - both military from the official army with the support of Saudi Arabia, and as a result of negotiations. This will reduce speculative support for rapeseed prices, and they will continue to fall as supply increases.