Improved harvest forecasts in Australia and Brazil have brought down rapeseed and soybean prices
Favorable weather conditions allowed canola harvesting in Canada before the start of snowfall, and precipitation in Australia and Brazil improves the prospects for the harvest, so prices for rapeseed, canola and soybeans turned down after reaching record levels.
Experts, thanks to favorable weather in Australia, raised estimates of canola production in 2021/22 MG to 5.5 million tons, and according to the official forecast of ABARES, it will reach a record 5.03 million tons (compared to last year's 4.1 million tons), so the USDA estimates canola exports at 4 million tons.
The end of the canola harvest in Canada, although low, puts pressure on quotes, and November futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange fell 1% yesterday to 917.7 CAD/t or 7 734.87/t after reaching 927.7 CAD/t on Thursday, which is still lower than the record of July futures - 1000 CAD/t.
On Thursday, rapeseed quotes on Paris Euronext reached a record 676.25 €/t or 7 782/t, but on Friday and Monday they fell by 4% to 650.25 €/t or 7 751.4/t, as traders began to take profits amid a 14% increase in prices for the month.
Rapeseed prices in Europe remain 1 15-20/ton higher than for Canadian canola, but Canada is unlikely to be able to step up exports, while Australia actively sells canola.
In Ukraine, the rapeseed purchase season is coming to an end, traders plan to close programs by the end of October against the background of the lack of significant volumes, so prices in ports remain at a low level of 700-710 $/ton or 20800-21200 UAH/ton.
The rainy season in Brazil accelerates the sowing of soybeans, which leads to a gradual decline in prices for it. November soybean futures on Chicago SWOT fell 1% to 4 457.5/ton yesterday, losing 4.7% in a month under pressure from improved soybean crop prospects in the United States and forecasts of a record harvest in Brazil due to the expansion of sowing areas.
Today's USDA report on oilseeds, which is expected to increase the production forecast, may further increase pressure on quotes.