The deterioration of winter wheat crops in the United States supported stock quotes

After a prolonged decline in wheat prices at the end of 2021, markets received new support factors yesterday in the form of data on the deterioration of crops in the United States.

According to USDA monitoring data, during the month, the condition of crops worsened due to a lack of precipitation in the main wheat-growing regions. In particular, in Kansas, the number of crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 62% as of November 28 to 33% as of January 3 (last year at the beginning of January there were 46%), in Colorado – from 38% to 25% (last year 19%), Oklahoma – from 48% to 20%, Illinois – from 79% to 75% (last year 50%), Nebraska – from 64% to 39% (last year 37%). At the same time, the number of crops in good or excellent condition increased in Montana from 7% to 12% (last year 65%), North Dakota – from 29% to 39% (26%), South Dakota – from 37% to 38% (37%).

March US futures rose yesterday:

• by 4 4.41 / ton to Чикаго 282.9/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 4 4.6 / ton to H 295.4/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1 1/ton to 3 356.6 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

European wheat is rising in price after American wheat, although the state of crops in the EU is good, and weather forecasts for the coming weeks do not cause concern.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext rose 5.25 €/ton yesterday to 279.25 €/ton or 3 315.26/ton, recouping Monday's drop.

March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange on Monday fell by 2 2.25/ton to 3 331.75/ton and remained unchanged yesterday, as most Russian and Ukrainian traders are on New Year's holidays until January 10.

A significant amount of December precipitation in Ukraine and Russia in the fields with winter crops made it possible to replenish soil moisture reserves and improved the prospects for wintering weak crops that did not enter the winter in the tillering phase.

The Turkish government has extended the zero duty on grain imports until the end of 2022, which will improve the purchasing power of one of the largest importers of Ukrainian and Russian grain, especially given the strengthening of the lira exchange rate to 13 liras/ л after the previous drop to 16.5-17 liras/л.

India exports a record amount of wheat this season. In the first 7 months of my 2021/2, the country increased its exports by 527% compared to the same period last year to 3.2 million tons, while in my 2020/21, a total of 2.09 million tons of wheat were exported.