After Trump's statement about continuing the war with Iran, oil prices rose by 7-12%

The market expected Trump to announce an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran and a move to negotiations in his State of the Union address yesterday, but the President instead promised more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks and offered no concrete plans to open the Strait of Hormuz. His speech therefore led to a new surge in oil prices and a fall in stock markets.

June Brent crude futures rose 7.4% yesterday to $109/barrel, completely erasing Monday and Tuesday's 5.9% drop (+59% since the start of the war), and May US WTI crude futures rose 11.5% yesterday to $111.5/barrel (+71%), although June futures rose 7.9% to $98/barrel.

The sharp increase in US oil prices is due to increased demand from Asian countries due to supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region.

According to Kpler, average daily crude oil exports from the United States approached a record 5 million barrels per day in March. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a reduction in supplies from the Middle East by 11 million barrels per day, American oil helped stabilize the situation in Japan and South Korea.

US stock indexes plunged sharply at the start of the session yesterday, but ended trading unchanged amid optimism about the imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz and better-than-expected US economic data.

Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to a 2.5-month low of 202,000, indicating a stronger-than-expected labor market (212,000). In addition, the trade deficit for February was $57.3 billion, compared to expectations of $60.6 billion.

Markets are awaiting the start of a US ground operation to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE government has said it is ready to assist the US and other allies in this matter and is lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution that would allow this to happen.

According to Vortexa, the volume of crude oil stored on tankers that have been idle for at least 7 days increased by 47% to 136.13 million barrels in the week of March 21-27.

According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories as of March 27 exceeded the seasonal 5-year average by 1.4%, and gasoline inventories by 4.2%, confirming a decline in demand amid rising prices.