After a long rise, corn prices fell by 2%.

After a speculative 5% rise in the last two weeks of December, driven by a rainfall deficit in Argentina, March corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago fell 2% to $177.6/t on January 3 (+2.5% for the month) on news of a new virus in China and amid profit-taking by traders.

 

No precipitation is expected in Argentina over the next 7-10 days, and temperatures will remain above normal, so the weather factor will continue to put pressure on prices.

 

Experts from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) have raised the forecast for corn sowing areas in Argentina from 6.3 to 6.6 million hectares, of which 80% had been sown as of December 27. 98% of the crops are in good or excellent condition. At the same time, in the province of Cordoba, the main producer of the grain, where 35% of Argentine corn is grown, only 56% of the area has been sown, and the amount of rainfall there in recent weeks has been the lowest.

 

The quote is supported by active corn exports from the United States, which in the 2024/25 MY (as of December 26) amounted to 15.4 million tons, which was 26.8% higher than last year's pace. In addition, corn consumption for ethanol in November increased by 1.7% to 11.8 million tons.

 

In Brazil, 80.8% of the area has been sown with first-crop corn, and harvesting has already begun in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. Against the backdrop of favorable weather with abundant rainfall, analysts have increased the forecast for the Brazilian corn harvest by 0.3 million tons to 128.6 million tons, compared to 122 million tons in the 2023/24 MY.

 

March corn futures on the Paris exchange rose by 2.6% to €212.75/t during the last two weeks of December, but fell by 1.3% to €210/t or $216.5/t on January 3 (+1.9% for the month).

 

The decline in the euro exchange rate against the dollar reduces the attractiveness of the European market for Ukrainian corn, so traders' attention is focused on the Asian market, especially against the backdrop of news about another virus outbreak in China.

 

In Ukraine, export demand prices for corn delivered to Black Sea ports remain at $204-206/t or UAH 9,650-9,750/t, but the devaluation of the hryvnia will lead to an increase in prices and sales volumes.

 

In the 2024/25 MY (as of December 30), Ukraine exported 9.52 million tons of corn, which is 1.8% higher than last year's pace, with exports decreasing in December compared to December 2023 from 3.2 to 2.3 million tons.