After falling to a 4-month low, wheat prices rose slightly

Acceleration of wheat harvesting in the USA, EU, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation provides new data on the quality and yield of wheat of the new crop. Against this background, wheat quotes during the week rose by 2.9-7.2% after falling to a 4-month low on data from the July USDA report, where the forecast for world wheat production was significantly increased.

 

In Ukraine, the export prices of the demand for food wheat are increasing on the data of worse than expected quality. But this growth is limited by low prices for Russian wheat. During the week, purchase prices for food wheat rose by $6-10/t to $195-200/t or UAH 9,300-9,500/t, while forage remained at $175-180/t or UAH 8,000-8,300/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

September wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 1% to $201.36/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.9% for the week),
• by 0.3% to $210/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.9%),
• by 2.1% to $228.8/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+7.2%),
• by 0.9% to €225.75/t or $245.9/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+5.7%).

 

In the USA, on July 21, winter wheat was harvested on 76% of the area (72% on average for 5 years), and 77% of the spring wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (the same as a week ago), compared to 49% last year.

 

During July 12-18, the export of wheat from the USA decreased by half compared to the previous week, to 238 thousand tons, and in general in the 2024/25 MR (from June 1) it reached 2.59 million tons, which is 20.22% ahead of last year's pace .

 

In Ukraine, on July 19, 10.3 million tons of wheat were harvested from 2.627 million hectares or 59% of the area with a yield of 3.92 tons/ha. As the harvest progressed to the north and west, where the weather was better for the crops, the average yield increased. A wave of rains reduced the heat, and wheat crops were not affected. Export of wheat for July 1-19 amounted to 872,000 tons, which is twice as much as last year's 451,000 tons.

 

In France, the condition of soft wheat crops continues to deteriorate. As of July 15, the share of crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 57% to 52%, which is the worst indicator since the abnormal 2019, when only 42% of such crops were. Wheat is harvested on 14% of the area compared to 43% on average. According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the harvest of soft wheat will decrease compared to last year from 35.1 to 28.7 million tons.

 

In the Russian Federation, on July 19, 40.75 million tons of wheat were harvested from 11.42 million hectares or 37.8% of the area. The average yield for the week will decrease by 8% to 3.57 t/ha, and it continues to deteriorate as harvesting moves north and east. Market participants are worried about the quality of wheat, but local agencies believe that there will be no quality problems this season.

 

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for July-August deliveries of Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% have fallen for 7 weeks in a row, and last week fell by $2/t to $217/t FOB. At the same time, prices for French wheat fell by $4/t to $233/t, Romanian - by $4/t to $220/t, American - by $15/t to $213/t.

 

A good wheat harvest in importing countries will reduce the demand for wheat in the current season and restrain price growth in exporting countries.