Argentina's sunflower harvest forecast raised to record 4.7 million tons will put pressure on sunflower oil prices

Last week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina's sunflower harvest in the 2024/25 MY by 200,000 tons to a record 4.7 million tons, which would be 22% higher than the previous season's figure (3.85 million tons) and the USDA forecast (4.2 million tons).

The forecast is being raised for the second week in a row, as sunflower sowing areas turned out to be larger than expected and yields were higher.

Recall that Argentina is the third largest global exporter of sunflower oil, after Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

In April, the USDA estimated Argentina's sunflower harvest in the 2024/25 MY at 4.2 million tons, and sunflower oil exports at 1.15 million tons. The adjustment of forecasts in the May report will dramatically change the global balance and lead to a drop in sunflower oil prices in May-June.

This week, prices for sunflower oil in Argentina were $1,115-1,125/t FOB, which is slightly lower than prices in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, but an increase in offers may further reduce prices, especially given the forecasts for increasing sunflower sowing areas in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation.

Kazakhstan has been increasing its production of sunflower and sunflower oil in recent years thanks to supplies to China, so in 2025 it plans to increase the sowing area by 121,200 hectares compared to last year to 1.4 million hectares (1.25 million hectares in 2024, 1.12 million hectares in 2023 and 1.09 million hectares in 2022). Recall that last year, the country's sunflower yield was the best in the last three years and amounted to 1.46 t/ha (1.1 t/ha in 2023 and 1.2 t/ha in 2022), thanks to which its production reached a record 1.83 million tons, which exceeded the 2023 harvest by 48% and the 2022 harvest by 40% (1.3 million tons).