The increase in the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation is increasing the pressure on wheat prices, including in Ukraine.

Favorable weather conditions in Australia, Argentina, and eastern Russia continue to put pressure on wheat prices on world exchanges, which lowers export demand prices in Ukraine.

Due to better yields in the central regions of the Russian Federation and the Volga region (although lower in the south), SovEcon experts have increased the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2025 by 0.7 million tons to 86.1 million tons, although the Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates it at 90 million tons, and the USDA estimates it at 83.5 million tons.

Against the backdrop of increased supply, prices for Russian wheat for September delivery fell by another $3/t to $227-229/t FOB in a week, which led to a decrease in prices from competitors. According to Rusagrotrans, prices for French wheat fell by $6/t to $224/t, Romanian wheat by $5/t to $233/t, Argentine wheat by $2/t to $228/t, American wheat by $1/t to $221/t, and Ukrainian wheat by $1/t to $226/t FOB.

The decline in prices for Russian wheat stimulated demand, so exports in August increased compared to July from 1.9 to 4.4 million tons.

In the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 3.06 million tons (4.1 million tons for the same period last year), in particular in September - 414 thousand tons (510 thousand tons).

In the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, export demand prices for food wheat fell by 200-300 UAH/t to 10,200-10,400 UAH/t or $218-220/t during the week, while for feed wheat they remained at 9,500-9,600 UAH/t or $203-206/t due to high demand.

Wheat stock quotes rose slightly yesterday, but overall futures are trading 2-4.5% lower than a month ago.

Wheat exports from the US have reached 7.065 million tons since the start of the season (June 1), which is 10% ahead of last year's pace, and demand for cheap American wheat remains high.

During the week, December futures fell:

• by 1.9% to $192.5/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-2% per month),
• by 0.6% to $190/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4%),
• by 1% to €191/t or $224.7/t - wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange (-4.5%).

At the same time, HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis increased by 0.2% to $212.3/t (-2%).

The forecasted dry and warm weather in Canada and the Russian Federation will allow the completion of the spring wheat harvest without losses, which will increase pressure on prices over the next month.