Increased corn harvest forecasts in Ukraine put pressure on new crop prices

The Foreign Service Attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for the 2025/26 corn harvest in Ukraine to 34 million tons, which significantly exceeds the USDA's July estimate (30.5 million tons), based on data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine on planted areas and yields. The USDA representative also raised the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine to 28.5 million tons, which would exceed the USDA's previous estimate by 4.5 million tons.

 

In the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine harvested 26.8 million tons of corn and exported 22 million tons.

 

According to the assessment of First Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky, the wheat harvest forecast for 2025 may be increased from the current 21.2 million tons to 22 million tons, and corn - from 26.5 million tons to 28 million tons, provided that the weather is favorable in August and September.

 

Rainfall in July improved the condition of corn crops in Ukraine, which stopped the growth of forward grain prices at $208-210/t for delivery in October-November, but the increase in corn production forecasts and a sharp drop in feed wheat prices from $220-222/t to $210-212/t increased the pressure on forward corn prices, which have already fallen to $200-205/t for delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

At the same time, in Ukraine, export purchase prices for old-crop corn remain at a high level of $235–240/t or UAH 10,900–11,200/t against the backdrop of a supply shortage and the need for traders to purchase additional batches needed for export.

 

Lower oil prices and improved crop conditions in the US continue to put pressure on corn prices on exchanges.

 

During the week, December corn futures on the CBOT in Chicago fell by 2.2% to $158.3/t (–4.5% for the month), and November futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell by 1.3% to €192/t or $222.3/t (-6%), despite a lower production forecast in the EU.

 

The trade war between China and the US does not yet allow for planning supplies of American corn to China, so cheap American corn will actively compete with Ukrainian corn, and farmers should expect a further decline in prices at the beginning of the season.